The Sports Bar

2011-03-16T07:38:00.000-07:00

Day 3:

2.05 The Pertemps Hurdle

Desperately hard race to pick a winner, but there is one that sticks out for me, Jenny Candlish's Barafundle.

This one has only once finished out of the frame in ten attempts and has been plotted for this race since a couple of quick runs in November. What is significant is that he came up against the devastatingly impressive Cleeve Hurdle winner Grands Crus in a Listed handicap hurdle. He was a ten-length second , but was 14 clear of a strung out field and was the only one to give Grands Crus a race.

A week later, he came out and beat another decent field before being put away for this race.
He is adaptable ground-wise, and is one of only three in the race who won last-time out...a major positive for the Pertemps!

Selection: Barafundle (ew) 11/1

2.40 The Ryanair Chase

The bet of the day for me runs in the Ryanair, in fact I think it's one of the bets of the whole week, Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.

Ever since his staying on effort to be third in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year, the Ryanair looked like it would be the ideal race for Murphy's stable star to break his festival duck.

The ground has also come right for him, and he really caught the eye when running into fourth behind Master Minded in the Victor Chandler Chase after being so badly hampered he was carried right across the track. Murphy was quoted as saying that it was the first time since his impressive win at Doncaster over 2 and a half miles in February 2010 that he was coming back to form.

He's trying this trip for the first time over fences but 2 miles looks the minimum for him these days and there is every chance he will improve for the step up.

His Festival form figures stand at an impressive 423, which includes a close second in the 2009 Arkle and a third in last year's Champion Chase. He is probably the classiest horse in a race that has cut up with the defection of Somersby to the Champion Chase and Riverside Theatre being injured.

The danger could be last year's winner Albertas Run, who boasts extremely good figures on good ground, but he has had a terrible prep this season and may just find Kalahari King too good.
At 5/1, he represents a knocking good bet to nothing each-way and barring a fall, there really shouldn't be three horses in front of him.

Selection: Kalahari King (ew) 5/1

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

I don't think anyone can argue that this - on paper - is a two horse race. Fair enough horses don't run on paper, but dual champion Big Buck's and Grands Crus look to be miles clear of the rest of the field.

Even going on stats and trends, there can only be two winners. The previous year's winner has returned four times in the past decade and their overall record stands at three wins and one second. Clearly, that speaks in the favour of Big Buck's, although he would be the first horse to win three consecutive staying hurdle crowns (Inglis Drever missed out in 2006 due to injury) if successful.

He's been off the track since winning the Long Walk Hurdle in December and that Newbury race has provided the winner four times in the past 20 years, although the Cleeve Hurdle, won by Grand Crus, has now usurped it as the best trial - three of the last four winners ran in the Cheltenham Grade 2 event.

The Irish have a desperate recent record, with no Irish winner in 15 years since Dorans Pride in 1996, which doesn't bode well for Willie Mullins' fancied pair Mourad and Fiveforthree.

Grand Crus is the new kid on the block, and put in the most visually impressive performance of the season in the Cleeve Hurdle, and you cant help but tip your cap to him as he has improved from a mark of 126 at the start of the season to 169 (just 5lbs below Big Buck's).

There is undoubtedly plenty of improvement left in him and he could well improve past Big Buck's here, as he's only had six starts so there should still be plenty to come.

The fact remains though, that Big Buck's has won ten out of ten since reverting to hurdles after a last fence fall in the 2008 Hennessy, and has only really once had a race, when Punchestown put it up to him in the 2009 renewal. There was a time where he'd hit flat spots and would come under pressure, but those days are long behind him and he does everything with ease and still these days.

A win here would see him go down as one of the best staying hurdlers EVER, and until he's beaten, I'm happy to keep backing him. The fact that Grands Crus is in the race makes him now a betting proposition, and at 11/10, I'm happy to have a crack.

Paddy Power have just offered a pretty tasty concession, however which may alter the plans...if your horse finishes second to Big Buck's they will refund your stake, Grands Crus and Mourad are now a lot more appealing. Still though...

Selection: Big Buck's 11/10

4.00 Byrne Group Plate

Another terribly tricky race to unravel, but there are one or two who fit a few trends. The first is Quartz de Thaix, who in the form of his life and is trained by a real festival shrewdy, Venetia Williams.

French breds have a fantastic record in this race (the opposite of the Irish, who haven't won since 1951) and his trainer has a great record in the race, winning it twice in the last four years.

Since going back over fences this season, he has been nothing but impressive, winning his two races by a combined distance of 22 lengths, including an impressive win at Newton Abbott just last Monday. Rated 145 over hurdles, he is only now starting to reach his potential over fences and can make a mockery of his current mark of 144.

He is sure to have had this race in mind all season and can run into a place at least.

Gordon Elliott came to the Cheltenham table yesterday with two winners and a place, and he has a real lively one here in the shape of Beautiful Sound.

Having spoken to the trainer during the week, it was hard not to hear the excitement in his voice when speaking about the possibility of Beautiful Sound sneaking in at the bottom of the weights at the Festival.

He has has his leg problems but is in great form at the moment according to the trainer, and will relish the quick underfoot conditions. He is extremely lightly raced, having only had the five runs, and was gambled into favouritism in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, only to be given a poor ride by Katie Walsh to finish ninth of 28 in heavy ground.

He reappeared at Fairyhouse a few weeks later to win well, jumping exceptionally out of ground again less than ideal and has since been put away in the hope of getting in off a light weight at the festival. It's not often Davy Russell sweats down to do 10st6lbs, which is a tip in itself.

With the form of the stable this week, this one could go off a lot shorter so get on early if you can, and hope to cheer home another Irish winner on Paddy's Day.

Selection: Quartz de Thaix (ew) 7/1 or Beautiful Sound 12/1

2011-03-15T15:44:00.000-07:00

1.30 The National Hunt Chase

Day 2 kicks off with the 4-mile Novices' Chase, which for some is the worst race of the festival.
It can be very tricky so stakes should be kept low. One for me is Tim Vaughan's Beshabar, who was previously with Paul Nicholls before the Harry Findlay affair.
This giant horse was built for chasing yet was very progressive over hurdles, taking decent pots at Sandown and Ascot before the switch to Vaughan.
He was in the process of running a cracker when being brought down by Chicago Grey at Cheltenham in November and was freshened up and given time to get over that before jumping well and staying on stoutly recently at Doncaster to beat Cool Mission.
Rated 149 over hurdles, he is undoubtedly classy and may easily outrun his current Chase mark of 138. He has the scope to improve over fences and being from a classy family of stayers including Tidal Bay, he will do for me.

Selection: Beshabar (ew) 8/1

2.05 The Neptune Novices' Hurdle
The second Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at the festival is The Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle, run over 2 miles and 5 furlongs. Traditionally, this race has been won by top-class horses and the roll of honour includes Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and most recently Peddlers Cross.
This could be one for the Irish, with the best form on offer coming from the likes of Oscars Well, So Young and First Lieutenant. They will face some stiff home opposition from the likes of Bobs Worth and Minella Class, both from the Nicky Henderson stable, and this could be one of the races of the festival.
For me, this boils down to the big two of Oscars Well and So Young. Oscars Well couldn't have been any more impressive than on his last two starts, winning a Navan Grade 1 before landing the Deloitte in great style from Zaidpour, Hidden Universe and Shot from the Hip.
The form is without question in the book, and at the time it looked like a strong Grade 1, and being by Oscar, he should appreciate better ground...but the Deloitte form wasn't exactly franked yesterday by Zaidpour or Hidden Universe in the Supreme.
I may regret this but I'm going to go against him for the in-form Willie Mullins's So Young. This one hasn't had the gun put to his head at the highest level yet but it is hard not to have been impressed by the way he has one on both starts over hurdles.
The form itself was boosted when Leopardstown runner up Harpsy Cord hacked up at the weekend, and Paul Townend is rumoured to have said that So Young was better than Hurricane Fly after a recent schooling session. High Praise indeed! Add that to the fact that Mullins has a brilliant record in the race as evidenced by recent wins for Mikhael d'Haguenet and Fiveforthree.
He has been extremely well backed all week so confidence is clearly high, and with Mullins landing a double yesterday who are we to doubt the stable's form.

Selection: So Young 5/2

2.40 The RSA Chase
Tough renewal this year, despite the presence of warm favourite Time for Rupert. He is many people's idea of a good thing but before steaming in, there are a few negatives that people seem to be missing.
Firstly, following a setback that forced him out of his prep-race, you will have to go back to 1962 to find the last winner of this race that spent longer off the track.
Secondly, that setback has meant he enters the race off the back of just two chase starts unlike the last 11 winners and thirdly, no RSA winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 20 years.
He may have the class to overcome this but at the prices I can't reccommend him.
There are a few in opposition who interest me. The first is the Gordon Elliott-trained Jessies Dream, who won the Drinmore at Fairyhouse in November with dual Grade 1 winner Realt Dubh a distance back in second.
Elliott is sure to have a handle on Time for Rupert’s ability through Jessies Dream’s stablemate Chicago Grey, who was second to Time for Rupert at Cheltenham. It is no secret that Elliott regards Jessies Dream as a superior horse to Chicago Grey.
One for those who like a bet at big prices is a horse who scored on Trials Day at Cheltenham last month, The Giant Bolster. Not too far behind Peddlers Cross in last year’s Neptune, The Giant Bolster has proved to be an excellent jumper this season and he will thrive on the RSA trip. It will be no surprise to his connections if he were to run a massive race.
The one who could beat them all however, is Donald McCain's Wymott. Impressive on his three starts over fences with his bold jumping and front running style, he should avoid any trouble in what is traditionally an error-strewn race.
Never out of the first two over jumps, Wymott showed he had class in abundance when winning a Grade 2 as a novice hurdler, beating today's opponent Wayward Prince, and has taken to fences brilliantly.
Adaptable ground-wise, Wymott could go off in front and not see another rival. If he does, I cant see more than two going past him and he is a knocking each-way bet.

Selection: Wymott ew 10/1
Alternative: The Giant Bolster ew 20/1

3.20 The Queen Mother Champion Chase

FOR many National Hunt enthusiasts, The Queen Mother Champion Chase is the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival.
There is something about the fastest chasers in the game going ‘lickety split’ for two miles over 12 fences that gets the heart beating that little extra bit quicker. In short, it’s what jumps racing is all about.
Given the speed at which the runners travel, jumping is more at a premium in this race than in perhaps any other that is run at the Festival. Even the slightest mistake can cost lengths, as the pace is unrelenting from start to finish.
It takes a special kind of horse to be the Champion Chaser, and there are a couple of special horses lining up for this year’s renewal. Where better to start then, than the reigning champ, Big Zeb?
Prior to last season, Big Zeb was a mercurial talent. It was clear he had a serious engine, but could never put in that clean round of jumping that would propel him to the very highest level.
Going into this race last year, he was a quietly fancied 10/1 shot, travelled beautifully and jumped impeccably to beat Forpadytheplaster, with Master Minded a disappointing fourth.
This season, there hasn’t even been a hint of a jumping mistake, and Big Zeb has looked impressive on all of his starts, even including when beaten in the Tied Cottage by Willie Mullins’ Golden Silver in unsuitably heavy ground, just tying up on the run-in having travelled imperiously.
There are arguments that Golden Silver may have improved past Big Zeb judging on that piece of form, but again, the difference between the two horses is that Golden Silver relishes a slog, which is exactly what he got at Punchestown, whereas on a better surface it is clear that Big Zeb is the classier of the two (in their careers they have met five times, Big Zeb has won four).
There are a few other potential flies in the ointment, most notably last year’s Arkle winner Sizing Europe - who hasn’t had a traditional preparation for a Champion Chase - and Woolcombe Folly, who put in an impressive weight carrying performance to score in a quick time at Cheltenham on Tingle Creek Day.
Both are taken seriously, but the main threat to Big Zeb’s crown has got to be twice winner and long-time antepost favourite, Master Minded.
Paul Nicholls’ eight-year-old has been nothing but impressive this season having undergone a wind operation in the summer, and looked back to his imperious best when winning the Tingle Creek at Cheltenham.
He did, however, look vulnerable at Ascot when he just held on from the fast-finishing Somersby by a nose. Somersby lines up in opposition again despite the fact that he constantly gives the impression that he would improve for a step up in trip.
Regardless, Tony McCoy (deputising for the injured Ruby Walsh) blamed himself for Somersby getting so close to Master Minded at Ascot, saying he gave the horse a “horlicks” of a ride, and that Master Minded won despite him.
He has been there and done it in the Champion Chase, is the highest rated horse in the field, and Nicholls is quoted as saying Master Minded is his best chance of a winner this year… so if he’s truly back to his best he will take a world of beating. But the same was said last year.
For me, it boils down to Big Zeb and Master Minded, and not just because form or ratings. Those who follow trends and statistics will have noted that between the two, they both tick most of the boxes required to win a Champion Chase.
Tingle Creek form is a massive positive, as 8 of the last 11 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase in the same season. Master Minded won it this season and perhaps significantly, won it en route to both of his previous wins in this race.
26 of the last 29 winners started at single-figure odds, and 10 of the last 12 winners started no bigger than 5/1, a stat which brings both into the equation.
Irish-trained horses have a great record, as does the previous year’s Arkle winner, which also brings the talented Sizing Europe into the equation.
For me, though, whoever can knock the champ off his perch will be the one being cheered back to the winners enclosure, and I can see a beaming Barry Geraghty - draped in a tricolour - celebrating back-to-back wins on Big Zeb.
Selection: Big Zeb 3/1
4.00 The Coral Cup
A typically strong renewal, in which three horses stick out.
The first is the wily veteran Arcalis. The Howard Johnson-trained 11-year-old always has reserved his best form for this venue.
A former Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner, he surprised many observers with his runs towards the latter part of last season. He was a strong finishing second in the County Hurdle and followed up with two solid efforts in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and also the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock.
He shaped on those occasions as if finding two miles a bit sharp nowadays and the extra distance in the Coral Cup should be a big help to him. Not far off Big buck's earlier this season and looks each way value at a massive price.
The second is Tiger O'Toole. Winner of a really decent Grade 2 Handicap Hurdle at Ascot already this season, he brings arguably the best form to the race beating reopposing Grade 1 juvenile winner Walkon by half a length.
Hold-up horses fared well yesterday which will suit Tiger O'Toole and the ground will hold no fears. The fact that he has had a break since his last (winning) run is a major plus and he again looks overpriced.
The main pick for me though is Willie Mullins' second string, Ballyhaunis, ridden by Paul Townend.
Always highly regarded, this lightly raced novice has shown a decent level of form on the flat and has done nothing wrong over hurdles, winning on good and soft ground, before a valiant 2 length second to subsequent dual winner Hidden Cyclone.
With the stable in the form it's in, I can see money coming for Ballyhaunis and he may not go off at his current 16/1.
Selection: Ballyhaunis (ew) 16/1
Alternatives: Arcalis or Tiger O'Toole, both 25/1
5.15 The Weatherbys Champion Bumper
The raiding party doesn't appear as strong as in recent years, but I'm still confident we can land this one, and there are two that stick out with great chances.
Colm Murphy's Raise the Beat is the first. After showing little on his debut on heavy ground, Raise the Beat was a completely different prospect on his two subsequent starts, quickening well on both occasions to score impressively on faster ground, which he will have today.
He has been the talking bumper horse of the preview night circuit and can hopefully make this a double for Murphy.
It must be noted that the trainer doesn't send horses to Cheltenham who don't have chances (see Brave Inca, Big Zeb, Zaarito) and with his 15 Festival runners, Murphy has only been outside the places twice. Sit up and take note!
The alternative to Raise the Beat is Philip Rothwell's Divine Rhapsody, who won the Punchestown Goffs Land Rover Bumper last April and was immediately targetted at this race.
The second, third, fourth, and fifth all came out and won races after being beaten by Divine Rhapsody, and at a decent 12/1 he makes plenty of alternative appeal.
Selection: Raise the Beat ew 10/1

Alternative: Divine Rhapsody ew 12/1

2011-03-14T10:27:00.000-07:00

Cheltenham 2011, Day 1
1.30 The Supreme Novices' Hurdle
THOSE who have made the trip to The Cheltenham Festival will tell you. There is nothing that compares with the roar that goes up at 1.30 on the first day as the runners go charging down towards the first in The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
It is what jumps fans have been waiting for for the past 361 days. That feeling of emptiness has gone. For the next four days, they are in racing Mecca, among their own kind, enjoying a veritable banquet of top-class racing, revelry and the battle with the bookies. Cheltenham is back!
That joyous feeling lasts the guts of approximately 30 seconds, because after that initial surge of excitement, it’s all about who you’ve backed in The Supreme, where it’s positioned, how’s it jumping?

Last year, Dunguib carried the moniker of the Irish banker, and those who steamed in trying to get off to a flyer had their fingers well and truly burned as he could only finish third. He was so good the year before in the bumper and had been great on home soil all season.
Hadn’t we seen this before? The name Cousin Vinny springs to mind. And it’s happening again this season. Cue Card hacked up in the bumper last year and has been ultra-impressive when running in novice company this year, only tasting defeat to Champion Hurdle hopeful Menorah.
His trainer Colin Tizzard maintains Cue Card was undercooked for that defeat, and to his credit, Menorah is a really classy sort. He is a worthy favourite for the opener on his bumper and novice hurdle form, but there a couple of negatives...12 of the last 14 winners had won on their last start (which is something Cue Card didn't do (he was beaten by Menorah). As well as this, the last 11 winners ran in the previous 45 days, which again is something Cue Card hasn't done, so at around the 2/1 mark, punters may be tempted to look elsewhere, but where exactly?

Paul Nicholls’ Al Ferof chased home Cue Card in last year’s bumper and may offer most resistance again. He won the ill-fated race at Newbury at a canter and the same colours have run well with similar types Noland and Granit Jack in recent years.
He needs to improve, but has the assistance of one Ruby Walsh, and a tasty enough price, he could run well.

Another for the shortlist against Cue Card is Nicky Henderson's Spirit Son. The pick of Barry Geraghty has been nothing but impressive on all of his starts to date, doing everything that has been asked of him.
Stats fans (like me) will note that he ticks a lot of boxes, as he has only ran twice over hurdles, won last time out and has had a recent run. He must go close.

Selection: Al Ferof (ew) 10/1
Alternative: Spirit Son 11/2

2.05 The Arkle Chase

This year’s Arkle is wide open, and while the race has a habit of being won the form horse of its particular season, it is difficult to pick one horse that really stands head and shoulders above the rest.

The four horses that do stand out in this year’s renewal above the field - Finian’s Rainbow, Ghizao, Realt Dubh and Medermit – and all have a few little doubts surrounding them, so it will be the one who puts it all together on the day who will get their head in front.

Nicky Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow has been towards the head of the market since impressing on his fencing debut, but blotted his copybook when making a series of errors when winning a weak Kingmaker at Warwick on his last start, and may be found out by the hustle and bustle of an Arkle.

Ghizao hasn’t done much wrong over fences this season, and since a decent second to Kilmurry at Cheltenham in October, he has impressed on both starts since, winning a Grade 2 over Arkle course and distance before going in again at Newbury.

He wasn’t rated as high as some of these over hurdles, however, and may just find one too classy on the day.

Realt Dubh goes to The Arkle as Ireland’s biggest hope. He has won two Grade 1s this winter, including the Irish equivalent of this, and his ability to stay a bit further may be an advantage, as in recent years this has gone to horses with plenty of stamina.

Again there is just a doubt that he might want ground conditions to be a little more testing than he is likely to encounter on the first day of the festival, but is one for the shortlist nonetheless.

For me, the likeliest winner is Alan King’s classy hurdler Medermit. Rated 158 over flights, Medermit was unlucky not to have won a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle two years ago when badly hampered at the last, and has arguably the best form over fences this season.

He showed he has the required stamina if needed when beating a classy field over 2 and a half miles at Sandown last month, travelling and jumping superbly before battling on up the hill to hold on from the very capable Captain Chris. King is on record saying Medermit is his best chance of success at The Festival this year, which bodes well, as the trainer has a great record in the race.

Selection: Medermit 3/1

2.40 The Spinal Research Handicap Chase

The old William Hill, one of those races that some punters love to get stuck right into.
This race can be tricky to find the winner, but there a few form trends that have served us well in the past, and Ogee ran into a place last year for this blog... so we'll stick to the same formula.

Having gone through the race, one horse jumps off the page at me, Nick Williams' Reve de Sivola.
Winner of two Grade 1 novice hurdles last season and second behind Champion Hurdle fancy Peddlers Cross in The Neptune, I think it's fair to say we haven't quite seen the best of Reve de Sivola over fences yet, and I put that down to him running over trips short of his best.
This stout stayer, in my opinion is crying out for 3 miles, as it will give him that little bit more time to find his rhythm.
He is officially rated 140 (runners rated less than 143 have a great record in the race) as opposed to his 148 over hurdles, so there is plenty more to come in this sphere.
The fact that he is a novice is also a trends plus, as is the fact that he has placed at The Festival before.
For me he rates a fantastic bet at around the 10/1 mark.

Selection: Reve de Sivola (ew) 10/1

3.20 The Champion Hurdle

What a shame that favourite Binocular misses out, but this is still a top class renewal where the winner could really come from anywhere.

New favourite Menorah is the obvious starting point, and has rock-solid claims. Last Season's Supreme Novice Hurdler has done nothing but improve this year, taking the Greatwood off top weight over course and distance before putting top novice Cue Card firmly in his place in the Boylesports International (again over C&D).
He ticks a lot of boxes, but there are a couple of glaring negatives, which lead me to oppose him.
Given that the last 16 winners ran during the same calendar year (the last two Champion Hurdle favourites failed on this stat and were beaten), it goes down as a negative that Menorah has been off the course since Mid-December. A second negative Menorah must overcome is that 40 years have passed since the reigning Supreme winner has won the Champion Hurdle.
Enough for me to look elsewhere.

A trend I like is the prep race. The Fighting Fifth, Kingwell and Leopardstown's Grade 1's have always produced strong runners, and this year may be no different.
The last three Champion Hurdlers contested the Fighting Fifth, in which Peddlers Cross had Binocular back in third.
As winner of the Neptune last year, the unbeaten Peddlers Cross will have plenty of fans, particularly as winners of that race include subsequent Champion Hurdlers Istabraq and Hardy Eustace. I can see him storming up the hill to be a gallant second.
Also, the Kingwell Hurdle must be respected as that has highlighted two of the last three winners (and five since 1990). On that basis Mille Chief would have a chance.

The one who I reckon they all have to beat is Willie Mullins' stable star Hurricane Fly.
He won both of the leading Irish Grade 1 guides at Leopardstown this season that have highlighted four and three winners in the last decade respectively.
He is not without negatives of his own. He is sired by Montjeu, who has never sired a Festival winner and he has never ran at the course...both are negatives, although a seven-time Grade 1 winning Montjeu has run here.

He is without question the classy one in the race, having racked up an incredible SEVEN Grade 1s on the bounce, and I'm keeping everything crossed that he shows that devastating turn of foot after the last to storm up the hill with Peddlers Cross a fast-finishing second.
Selection: Hurricane Fly 4/1

4.00 The Cross Country Chase
No bet for me, if you really wanted a bet, I would recommend Another Jewel or Majimar each way.

4.40 David Nicholson Mare's Hurdle

One word, Quevega
Plain and simple, Quevega is the best horse in the race, which has no strenght in depth to it. For me, she rates as the best bet of the week, even at around the even money mark.
Put it this way, she has won the last two renewals by a combined distance of 19 lengths and since then has won the 3 mile Grade 1 World Series Hurdle at Punchestown from Bensalem, Mourad, Powerstation, Karabak, Jessies Dream, i could go on.
It's that piece of form that stands out for me above anything else...there is no horse in this race that could do what Quevega did to that field.
She escapes a Grade 1 penalty for that win, which enhances her chances, simply she is the Nap of the meeting for me...famous last words???

Selection Quevega: Evens

5.15 The Centenary Novices Handicap Chase

A wide open handicap to finish the day, and there are a whole host of runners who we can make arguments for. It would probably be best to keep the powder dry for Wednesday, but depending on how the day has gone, you may be tempted to have a go at the 'lucky last'.

If i was pushed, I'd bring it down to three horses, Definity, Tullamore Dew and Glenstal Abbey.

Tullamore Dew would have had this race as his target since he won a bonus race at Plummers in January, and if he wins here he will receive an extra 60,000 pound.
He is without doubt well-handicapped (139) on his second to Arkle favourite Medermit (now rated 155) and will undoubtedly go off shorter than his current 9/1 if Medermit can land The Arkle at 2.05.
He has a few things going for him in the fact that he was placed in last year's Coral Cup, which shows he acts around Cheltenham, and that he loves good ground. He will be hard to beat.

If there is one who is better handicapped, it could be Paul Nicholls' Definity, who looks to have been let in lightly off a mark of 136. A useful hurdler (rated 149), he has improved with racing over fences, getting off the mark at Fontwell on his penultimate start, before running Bakbenscher close at Exeter. He's a similar type to the 135-rated Chapoturgeon, Nicholls' only previous winner in 2009.

Glenstal Abbey is one who could outrun his 33/1 price and sneak into a place, or perhaps more.
He has done all of his winning on good ground and was 3rd in a Grade 3 behind Beau Michael. He has plenty of scope for improvement, as he was always thought of as a promising chaser. He is rated to win the race on a mark of 135 and had a perfect pipe opener last month in a handicap hurdle behind Peak Raider. I have a feeling he has been plotted for the race and may go off shorter than 33/1.

Selection: Definity 8/1
Alternative: Glenstal Abbey (ew) 33/1

Happy punting folks.

Gold Cup Day

2010-03-18T11:28:00.000-07:00

Another cracking day on Thursday with Albertas Run coming in and a 1-2 in the World Hurdle earning us a nice few quid going into the final day.

JCB Triumph Hurdle

The Triumph is historically a tricky affair, but since the inception of the Fred Winter on Wednesday, the class has risen to the top and this has gone to fancied runners over the last few years.

Since the introduction of the Fred Winter, four of the five winners won last time out, were rated 80+ on the Flat and contested races over 1m4f+, had won at least twice over hurdles and started in the first four in the betting.

Runners who have had a final prep run in February have won 15 of the last 17 renewals and the Adonis Hurdle has produced the most runners as a prep race.

The one who ticks all of the boxes is Edward O'Grady's Alaivan. The market leader was a head away from winning a Group 3 on the Flat before winning a Listed race and running to a mark of 106.

He hacked up on hurdling debut before pulling too hard and having too much use made of him at Leopardstown when beaten by Carlito Brigante. That rival will give him plenty to do tomorrow, but Alaivan got right back on track when bolting up again last month in a Grade 2. The fast pace of the Triumph will suit, and there should be no problems settling him.

He is by far the classiest horse in the race and I personally am hoping he turns this into a procession.

Of the others, Carlito Brigante has been impressive on his last two starts, including when trouncing Alaivan, but horses rated so lowly on the flat dont generally win Triumphs, and I have a feeling he may make a three-miler in time.

Willie Mullins runs Secant Star, who has been very impressive to date. He had the race at his mercy when falling on debut and hacked up on his next start. The time that day was very slow, and although visually impessive, im not sure about the strength of the race.

Soldatino could be the one to trouble Alaivan, Nicky Henderson has his team in top form and this one bolted up in the Adonis at Kempton on his only British start. His lack of experience is a worry and might find the hustle and bustle of the Triumph a bit much for him at this stage of his career.

Selection: Alaivan @ 9/2
Alternative:Secant Star

Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle

The Cavalry Charge is tricky to win but Ive whittled it down to two against the field. Five year-olds rated between 128-135 have won 3 of the last five ruunings of the County, and five year olds in general have won 7 of the last 11.

Battle hardened horses have a good record, and its favourable to have plenty of running done this season. The MCR hurdle and Totesport Trophy are the key guide races.

The two to concentrate on here are Tarkari and Oldrick. Both tick a lot of the boxes and have nice racing weights. Oldrick was fifth behind Supreme runner up Get Me Out of Here in the Totesport before an impressive second to the progressive Qaspal in the Imperial Cup. He is officially 9lbs well in on the handicap, and has a lovely racing weight. If he can continue progressing he'll go very close.

Willie Mullins' Tarkari has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is sure to go well of a mark of 129. He was fourth in the MCR before winning well at Leopardstown at the end of February. As a five year old rate 129 who has run well in the MCR and is still progressing he represents great value at 16/1.

Selection: Tarkari (ew 16/1) and Oldrick (ew @ 14/1)

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

The three-mile novices hurdle is interesting in the fact that it sees a potential superstar run in the shape of Tell Massini. This beast has been nothing but impressive in his three starts to date at distances up to 3 miles. Although he took the Hyde Novices hurdle here (impressively) his form has all come on soft ground and he mightn't relish the quicker underfoot conditions. He has been mighty impressive all the same.

Like Tell Massini, Restless Harry has winning course form and he will make them all go some. Robin Dickin is quoted as saying its the best horse he's sat on in his 40 years involved with the sport, so he will obviously fancy his chances, but also like Tell Massini, his best form is on slower ground and could be just tapped for toe.

It really is wide open and the best bet from the home team could be Alan King's The Betchworth Kid. Good enough to reach the frame in the Goodwood Cup on the flat, he has been crying out for a step up in trip and will love the quicker ground. He will be doing all his best work at the end and has a chance of reaching the frame. His trainers form is a worry however.

Willie Mullins runs Quel Esprit after his fall on Wednesday, but that is not exactly ideal preparation (although he does look suited by the step up in trip. Again, the quick ground wont be to his liking.

The one for me who looks a huge price is Shinrock Paddy. Paul Nolan's charge has only lost once and that was in the Champion Bumper to the mighty Dunguib last season. He absolutely hacked up in the Grade 1 Barry and Sandra Kelly and looks certain to improve for a step up to three miles. He has been kept nice and fresh for the race and is - for me - overpriced at 9/1.

Selection: Shinrock Paddy (ew @ 9/1)
Alternative: Tell Massini @ 5/1

The Gold Cup

Kauto, Kauto, Kauto!!!!
Cant be beaten on his King George form. He's the best chaser around, Imperial Commander may run him close, but cant see Kauto beaten...For me, it really is as simple as that. No point hanging around talking about it, i feel that strongly. He's not a great price, so maybe Imperial Commander to win without Kauto, or even Tricky Trickster could run into a place. Anything close to evens is buying money in my opinion. Barring a fall, nothing should trouble him on his way to a hat-trick of wins and a staggering 14th Grade 1.

Selection: King Kauto

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle

With just the one running of this there aren't exactly trends to go by so its all about the form. The one for me is Willie Mullins' C'est Ca. His staying on third in the MCR is very decent form, and if he stays the extra half mile he's a major player With the best jockey in the race Alain Cawley on top, he is sure to run a big race.

It's possible that he is chucked in here, as he was beginning to become a really decent juvenile. He was brought down in the Grade 1 juvenile at Punchestown in 08 and its likely he is just coming back to himself after two good runs following his injury. A mark of 131 and a weight of 11st4lbs may not be enough to stop him.

Selection: C'est Ca (ew @ 9/1)

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap

Nicky Henderson loves to win this race in honour of his father and he takes aim at this again. You're the Top looks his first string with Barry Geraghty booked for the ride. He has a beautiful racing weight of 10st11lbs and novices have a great record. He can round off the week in style.

Selection: You're the Top (ew @ 10/1)

And thats it, its been emotional

2010-03-18T05:37:00.000-07:00

Ryanair Chase

Albertas Run sticks out to me as being overpriced in a wide open renewal of the Ryanair. Jonjo O Neill's star has been mixing it in top top company for years now, and i have the feeling that intermediate trips and good ground are exactly what Albertas Run needs these days.

As Ive said all week, previous Festival form is a must have, and Albertas Run has won an RSA Chase around hear a couple of years ago. He comes out on top in the ratings as well, by a whopping 7lbs. Having beaten a host of this field already a couple of times this season, he is great value at 16/1.

The top two are worthy favourites though, especially considering the fact that Paul Nicholls rates Poquelin better than his two previous Ryanair winners Taranis and Thisthatandtother. Having been beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he routed his rivals in the Boylesports on better ground, and comes here with every chance.

Tranquil Sea is the one horse who has beaten Poquelin this season, and has look in top form all season. Following that win in the Paddy Power, he went down fighting to Golden Silver over an inadequate 2 miles, but was back to his best when hosing up last month in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown.

The worry for this Grade 1 winning hurdler is the drying ground, as he has shown his best form with a bit of ease. It wouldnt be enough to put me off though and he is a viable alternative.

Selection: Albertas Run (ew @ 16/1)
Alternative: Tranquil Sea (ew @ 11/2)

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The big one is fairly straightforward.

If Big Buck's runs to all known form, he wins, its that simple. He is a short price, and a lot of fingers have been burned by hotpots Dunguib and Master Minded, but those two had a lot more running against them than Big Buck's.

He has his quirks and hits flat spots, but anything around evens represents value!! It was a high class renewal he won last year, beating Punchestowns , Kasbah Bliss and the likes. Since reverting to timber after his last fence blunder in the Hennessey a couple of years ago, and he has proven himself to be the undisputed king of the staying hurdlers.

If you're looking for a bit of each way value at a massive price, Time for Rupert could run into a place...he's essentially a staying chaser but has enjoyed tremendous success of hurdles, including over C & D in December and when running second behind the rejuvinated Tidal Bay in the Cleeve Hurdle.

Selection: Big Buck's @ best price-5/6 currently
Alternative: Time for Rupert (ew @ 22/1)

The two races to finish the card are extremely tricky affairs.

In The Byrne Group Festival Plate Handicap Chase is extremely tricky, but one against the field i like is Ferdy Murphy's Watch My Back. With a clear round of jumping, Watch My Back should go very close in this. He's a progressive type who has won 3 of his 6 completed starts and has been kept for this since bolting up from the very decent Battlecry in December.

Ferdy Murphy has a great record at the Festival and had a winner yesterday when Poker de Sivola won the 4 miler. He's adept at readying one for the Festival and Watch my Back is a confident choice.

Selection: Watch my Back (ew @8/1)

2010-03-18T04:22:00.000-07:00

A great Day 2 sets us up nicely for the rest of the week, and there's a couple of tasty ones today to get our teeth into. Thursday has long been the toughest day of the festival, and we all remember Black Thursday last year. This year will hopefully be a lot different tho.

Jewson Novices Handicap Chase

I fancy two in this, and having backed one antepost, ill be having a crack at the other today...and that one is Nicanor. The only horse to beat Denman over hurdles (here a few years ago in what is now called the Neptune), Noel Meades beast has taken a while to come to hand over fences.

To his credit he has never been seen to his best effect as he has been running on ground much softer than ideal. Even so, the form stacks up strongly in a race of todays nature.

Second to An Cathaoir Mor three runs ago, that one duly went on to win a Grade 1, his second to Kempes also reads well as he went onto Grade 2 success, and Nicanor slammed a useful Deal Done on his last outing, form which looks very good now. In short, he rates massive each way value.

The one ive backed antepost is Hey Big Spender. Colin tizzard took the bumper yesterday, which is a plus, and Hey Big spender has got winning Course and Distance form, jumping great in the process. I think that they have a potential superstar on their hands in Hey Big Spender, and at 9 or 10/1 he could be still too big a price.

Granted, some of these were rated higher over hurdles, but there is plenty of improvement in Hey Big Spender and he has done nothing wrong over fences so far

Selection Nicanor (ew @ 14/1)
Alternative: Hey Big Spender (ew @ 10/1)

Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

A very tough race to win, a top handicap hurdle. The one for me is Tom Taaffe's Smoking Aces. Taaffe seemed bullish about him at a recent preview night, and its been on my radar for a while now.

He gets in here on a lenient mark, and has just 10st6lbs to carry. He has been running great in Ireland, and stayed on stoutly to win last time out, beating decent horses in the process.

With a step up in trip sure to suit and first time cheekpieces to keep his mind on the job, this is a great opportunity for JP McManus to get back in the winners enclosure.

The trainer/jockey combination were successful in last years Coral Cup with Ninetieth Minute and he still sticks out at 10/1.

Selection: Smoking Aces (ew @ 10/1)

more to follow...

2010-03-16T09:00:00.000-07:00

Well Tuesday didn't exactly go to plan, but we'll crack on regardless, and hopefully pick up a few winners on Champion Chase day.

National Hunt Chase

Wednesday kicks off with The National Hunt Chase over 4 miles for amateur riders and the one who sticks out for me in the marathon is Nigel Twiston Davies' Petitfour. As a former Grade 1 winner over hurdles he represents decent each way value at 12/1 as he wants every inch of a trip and any jumping doubts are offset by the fact that the trainer has put his son up for the ride.

It's a wide open race and the dangers include Massasoit and Synchronised, especially the latter, whose trainer has a particularly good record in this race. It's a heat to keep stakes small however, so a little few quid on Petitfour should give you a run for your money. He has been running in better company for years now and this represents an opportunity to get back in the winners enclosure.

Selection: Petitfour ew @ 12/1

Neptune Novices' Hurdle

The Neptune is a great chance for Ruby to bag his second winner of the the meeting with the Willie Mullins trained Quel Esprit.

4th in the Bumper behind Dunguib last season, he looked a right good horse early in the season before being beaten by a good horse in Coole River (who has gone in again since), and if the vibes coming out of the Mullins yard are to be believed, Quel Esprit could go right to the top. Mullins has a fantastic record in this race, and has taken the last two renewals. The money has come in recent weeks and he still rates a good bet at 4/1.

The obvious danger is Rite of Passage, who finished a place ahead of Quel Esprit in the Bumper last season and has been nothing but impressive since. A runaway winner of the November handicap at Leopardstown, he won his maiden over hurdles well including beat a horse rated 144 with disdain last time. I really couldn't put anyone off Rite of Passage but Dermot Weld has expressed his concerns over the horses inexperience in big fields over hurdles and at 3/1 he represents no value to me.

Donald McCain's Peddlers Cross may give the selection the most to do-he has been nothing but impressive to date, including when bolting up over two miles in a Grade 2 already this season. He is bred to stay and has won a point-to-point so he may have that special mix of speed and stamina, rating him massive value at around the 8/1 mark.

Selection: Quel Esprit @ 4/1
Alternative: Peddlers Cross @ 8/1 (ew)

RSA Chase

The RSA Chase is next up and it's hard to split the top two in the market, Nicky Henderson's Long Run and Punchestowns. Long Run has been ultra impressive since coming to England, taking the Feltham and the Kingmaker. He possesses that magic mixture of speed and stamina, and may well be the second coming. However, he is only 5, which is very young for a race of this nature, and has not exactly been foot perfect, and any mistakes around Cheltenham will be punished. He's also ridden by amateur Sam Waley-Cohen which is definite negative against the pros. He's simply too short a price to back with confidence.

Stablemate Punchestowns could be massive value against the favourite, as he too has been impressive in his two wins over fences despite a major blunder on his last outing-he only found Big Buck's too good in the World Hurdle last season and will be bang there coming up the hill if he stays on his feet.

At a price, the one I like is Weapons Amnesty who has a Festival win, coming last year when he took the Albert Bartlett beating a top class field in the process. He stays all day and has solid form on all types of ground. He put up a serious performance when being short-headed by Pandorama (in that ones favoured conditions) at Leopardstown over Christmas, and just got outpointed by Citizen Vic over an inadequate 2m5f in the PJ Moriarty. He jumps, he stays, and represents massive each way value.

If there is a negative, its the form of the yard. As we saw with Solwith yesterday, Charles Byrnes isnt exactly firing, but Weapons Amnesty was reportedly unaffected by the chill in the stable over recent weeks.

Selection: Weapons Amnesty ew @ 8/1
Alternative: Punchestowns 11/4

Queen Mother Champion Chase

The big one of the day, and the long-standing debate over whether Master Minded is back to his brilliant best or not. The winner of the last two renewals has been untouchable at the festival, winning last year by an "unimpressive" seven lengths from old boy Well Chief.

On his return this season, the champion chaser was beaten by that rival over C & D (giving weight away) and was sidelined with a rib injury. The jury was out as to whether or not we'd see the real Master Minded again, but on his return in the Game Spirit last month, visually he seemed back to his imperious best (barring a last fence blunder).

But there are holes in the form. A blundering Mahogany Blaze was in second that day and there are some who think the form amounts to nothing. One thing that is for sure, he wont get away with a mistake like that one in the Queen Mother. But its simple. If Paul Nicholls has Master Minded back to his best he completes the hat-trick. The question is, are you prepared to take 4/5 or 8/11?

Im not, and the viable alternative for me is Kalahari King. An unlucky loser in last years Arkle, he went on to hack up in the Grade 1 at Aintree, and returned this season better than ever, when bolting up off top weight in a really competitive handicap at Doncaster. Ferdy Murphy left plenty to work on that day and was quoted before the race as saying he'd be happy with 5th or 6th. It emphasised the improvement Kalahari King has made since last season and with fast ground to his liking, he is a must bet each way at 5/1. I really cant see him out of the placings tomorrow and he may just have enough to beat Master Minded.

Selection: Kalahari King ew @ 5/1

Coral Cup

Readers of this blog will remember this race fondly when Ninetieth Minute obliged at a big price in this last year, and fingers crossed there's another gem in here.

There are a few i like, notably Quantitativeeasing, Sir Harry Ormesher and Wishfull Thinking.

Quantitativeeasing has been at the head of the betting all season for the Neptune, and it is a surprise to see him come here, especially with the trainers record in the race (3 placed in 24 runners, including last years unplaced favourite).

But Quantitativeeasing is potentially very well treated and represents the trainer/owner/jockey combination of yesterdays Champion hurdle winner Binocular. I actually quite liked him for the Neptune, so could not put anyone off him for this.

Sir Harry Ormesher is a quirky aul horse, but talented nonetheless. He is lighly raced this season (generally a must) and is the Alan King first string, ahead of the fancied Lake Legend. He wasnt stopping when winning over 2m3f at Doncaster last time out and should run well.

But the one they have to beat for me is Wishfull Thinking. He has gone from strength to strength in novice hurdles this season, and was mightily impressive when hacking up by 19 lengths at Exeter last time out. Although he carries 11st5, 5 lbs are offset by the talented Giles hawkins, which brings him right into contention. He ticks all the boxes and will hopefully give us a run for our money at a big price.

Selection: Wishfull Thinking ew @ 12/1
Alternative: Quantitativeeasing ew or Sir Harry Ormesher ew

Weatherby's Champion Bumper

In the bumper, I can't claim to know all that much about a lot of the runners, but one who was extremely impressive when winning at Fairyhouse was Tom Mullins' Tavern Times. He endured a nightmare passage that day and ran right away from the opposition in the style of a really good horse.

Mullins has been extremely bullish about him and rates him higher than last years bumper 2nd Some Present. It would come as no surprise to a lot of good judges if he won this and won it well.

Selection: Tavern Times ew @ 12/1

The Fred Winter is probably best left alone, but three against the field are Open Day, Son Amix and Ned of the Hill (all small ew).

Open Day ticks a lot of the boxes and will probably be my bet, as Son Amix might find the ground a bit lively. If he handles it he's interesting, and could run a big race, while Ned of the Hill will enjoy the quicker conditions and may have the most improvement in him. He's progressing at a rate of knots and would be a shorter price if with a more fashionable stable.

2010-03-15T13:53:00.001-07:00

Having gone through the championship races, we move onto the tricky stuff...the William Hill Trophy, Cross Country and the David Nicholson mares hurdle.

Glenfarcla Cross Country Handicap Chase

Starting with the Cross Country, there really is only one place to look, and that's to the cross country king Enda Bolger.

He has taken a stranglehold on the division with the likes of Spot the Difference, Heads on the Ground and current champ Garde Champetre.

Garde Champetre defends his crown again, and again his main danger is stablemate L'Ami. There was only a length and three quarters between them last year and with a 4lbs swing, strictly on the book L'Ami must be the bet.

But Garde Champetre possesses a finishing kick that belies his position at top weight and he does have the assistance of Nina Carberry, who is the best female jockey of her generation and the two get on great together. If there's a touch of 4/1about tomorrow though, L'Ami is a brilliant each way bet to nothing.

For those looking for a juicier pricer, Another Jewel won the great trends race when taking the PP Hogan at Punchestown with four of Enda Bolgers in behind. Off ten stone he is probably overpriced at 14/1.

Selection: L'Ami 7/2 (ew if 4/1, small stakes though)
Alternative: Another Jewel (ew 14/1)

David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

In the finale im going to put up Easter Legend as a small each way bet at 20-1. She has been improving all season, putting up her best performance to date when a length second to the decent Sweetheart in a Grade 2 at Ascot, she is improving at a rate of knots and will see out the trip well. She also gets a handy 5lbs from her rivals.

She obviously has a bit to find with Quevega and Voler la Vedette, who both have slight doubts for me. Quevega hasn't run this season and although she was ultra impressive in this race last season, she has been on the slide in the betting in the last couple of days, which is never a good sign with Willie Mullins runners.

Voler la Vedette is the obvious danger to the champion, but i also have doubts about her lofty rating of 161. On ratings of course, she wins, but i tend to take mares ratings with a pinch of salt. For me, her least impressive run this season was when she stepped up to 2m4f so it could be worth siding with an improver, and for me Easter Legend is the one.

Selection: Easter Legend (ew) (20/1)

William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

The big handicap of the day is the William Hill, which would be the Festival's equivalent of the Hennessey.

The two horses in this for me are Kicks for Free and Ogee, who both fit the trends and stats perfectly.

Kicks for Free is rated 144 which is perfect for this race (less than 150 is ideal) and has also been placed three times at the festival. He will love the ground and we know he loves the course, so he should run a cracker.

He has been in decent form this season on ground he hates, and represents the champion trainer Paul Nicholls. He was officially rated 147 over hurdles so this mark of 144, for me, says that he is well handicapped for this.

The other one im backing in this is Ogee, who beat some very useful yardsticks in the Grade 1 novices hurdle at Aintree last year. Useful on the Flat too (92) he loves good ground, will see out every yard of this trip and has done a lot more over fences than his rating suggests. The only time he has been beaten over the larger obstacles was in the Feltham behind Long Run and Tazbar, which is nothing to be ashamed of. He has won since and yet still only carries 10st 5lbs. He could be absolutely chucked in!!

Selection: Ogee (ew) (11/1)
Alternative: Kicks for Free (ew (25/1)

And thats day 1...here's hoping for a good day's punting to set us up for the week.
Pleasant Punting

2010-03-15T11:40:00.000-07:00

The Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

The feature race of the first day is one of the most open Champion Hurdles in years with the 9 of the 12 runners trading at 12/1 or lower.

There are strong cases to be made for most of the runners with positives and negatives for them all, and it promises to be a cracker!

At the time of writing Noel Meade's Go Native heads the betting as he chases WBX's milion pound bonus following wins in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdle's.

Go Native won the Supreme last year, showing an impressive turn of foot, putting distance between himself and his rivals before idling on the run-in and Medermit closing to under a length. The faster the ground is, the better for Go Native and he has a favourites chance. Previous festival winning form is also again a big plus.

He has beaten Solwith, Starluck, Binocular, Won in the Dark and Medermit already in the last year, so with conditions to suit, he must rate a smashing bet.

He isn't without his negatives tho...as statistics show that Supreme winners rarely follow up the next year, and winners of the Christmas Hurdle also have a poor record, as well as the fact that he hasn't run since St Stephens' Day.

Among the dangers is the Charles Byrnes trained Solwith, who has won significant trial races in the Irish Champion and also at Leopardstown over Christmas. He is quite adaptable ground wise, as he showed when winning in the spring at Aintree and Punchestown, but on quick ground he may just get done for toe by a speedier type.

Last year's winner Punjabi also rates a danger, with all of his best form coming in the spring. Runners in the previous years race tend to do well in the champion, but ive been sayin for a long time now that last years Champion Hurdle was below standard and im not about to change my mind now on the day.

For this reason im going to rule Celestial Halo and Binocular out, as well as the fact theyve been below par this season themselves. Binocular has been all but ruled out till this week so on that basis alone i cant back him...if Paul Nicholls is to be believed, Celestial Halo is back to himself, but he's held on this season's form.

Ive already mentioned Medermit, and i think he rates the danger to Go Native. There wasnt much between the two in last year's Supreme and he has improve leaps and bounds this season. Alan King's stable has hit form at the right time and he represents a knocking good bet.

Among the other protagonists, Starluck and Khyber Kim both have their chance and if i were to pick one over the other it would have to be Starluck. Impressive on his return this season before being bogged down in the mud when beaten by Mr Thriller, he showed his well being by winning on the flat recently at Kempton. There are worse bets.

Khyber Kim won the Greatwood over C & D, but he also hasn't run since December, and for my money he should be held by the main players.

Selection: Go Native (ew) @ 9/2
Alternative: Medermit (ew 9/1) or Starluck (ew 14/1)

2010-03-15T03:51:00.000-07:00

Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)
The Arkle represents a gilt-edged opportunity for the Irish to (hopefully) get a second winner on the board. In Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe, we have the two form horses, and I would not be surprised if these two battled it out up the hill.

Of the English challenge, Riverside Theatre and Somersby look the two to concentrate on and it has all the hallmarks of a cracking race. Somersby has been the subject of sustained support of the past week, and comes into the race nice and fresh, as is the case with a lot of Henrietta Knight trained big-race runners. Third in last years Supreme behind Champion Hurdle contenders Go Native and Medermit, Somersby has been impressive in two wins over the larger obstacles, particularly when taking the Henry VIII at Sandown in December, beating Crack Away Jack in the process.

There are one or two reservations i hold about Somersby however, in that he seemed to be plugging on through beaten horses in the Supreme last year, and the third place may have slightly flattered him. The nagging doubt is that he may want a little further and could be tapped for toe at a crucial stage in the race. A glaring negative is also the fact that he hasnt run since December, and only won horse since 1966 has won the Arkle when not running in the same calender year. 9/2 is plenty short enough for me.

The same negative applies to Riverside Theatre, who also hasnt had a run since winning the Wayward Lad in December. He has been impressive over fences, scoring with plenty in hand from the likes of El Dancer, who is a decent yardstick.

The problem for me, is that unlike a couple of his rivals, he never got his head in front at the top level as a novice, and faces a couple of rivals who have been there and done it, particularly around Cheltenham...a place where Riverside Theatre has never even ran. At the prices, he is also overlooked.

Which brings us to the two big Irish contenders. Sizing Europe has also not run in the calender year, which negates his chances, but out of all the contenders with this negative hanging over his head, he is the most experienced, having had four runs over fences (winning a Grade 3, Grade 2, and Grade 1).

He won his Grade 1 over Christmas by five lengths from Osana, but this doesnt tell the whole story, as he appeared held by Captain Cee Bee at the last when that one knuckled on landing, leaving him the race at his mercy. He reportedly didnt jump with his usual zest so it can be taken he will be bang there at the business end in the Arkle.

My fancy is Captain Cee Bee, which is rather unoriginal, but i feel he represents the best chance of a winner. As the speediest horse in the field, it all depends if the last fence jumping mistakes have been ironed out...and if he gets the last right he might just blow these all away. The way he picked Sizing Europe up at Leopardstown was rather taking and I feel he'll have too many guns for the opposition. As a winner of the Supreme, he is the one Festival winner in the line up, which is a major positive.

Selection: Captain Cee Bee
Alternative: Sizing Europe (ew)...if he drifts to 8/1 or better

2010-03-14T10:12:00.000-07:00

It's back!!!

The best four days of the year. You can have your Christmas, or holidays or trips to Oz!!! This is what its all about, the Cheltenham festival. Four days of top, top class National Hunt racing, and plenty of money to be made. Having a glance through last year's blog, we did quite well (apart from Black Thursday...Shocker!!!). Fingers crossed we can unearth a couple more little gems.

Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

The Supreme is a race that's been very good to me down the years, and hopefully that trend will continue. It has, however, become the subject of massive debate...namely over the chances of red-hot favourite, the Philip Fenton trained Dunguib.

Arguably the most impressive winner of the Champion Bumper at last years festival, Dunguib has carried all before him this season, winning the Royal Bond and the Deloitte (both Grade 1's) without coming off the bridle.

A lot of people have crabbed his jumping, which admittedly has been less than impressive, but better ground should help his jumping, as will a quicker pace to aim at...it has to be noted that his jump at the last in Leopardstown was his best...and this was when travelling at top speed)

Dunguib is unquestionably the speediest horse in the race and barring accidents, he should win this en route to a shot at the big boys in Punchestown.

The bookies on course will look to get Dunguib in the book and a touch of even money should be available on the day. If so, he rates a massive bet and should get us off to a flyer.

Evens is clearly not a working man's price, and with Paddy Power refunding bets if Dunguib wins, there's a touch a value to be had.

The obvious starting point is Get me out of here, who won the Totesport Trophy with any amount in hand. Jonjo O'Neill is quoted as rating this beast his best chance of a winner all week which we have to take seriously. He has an official rating of 150 which would generally be good enough to win a Supreme, but he still has 6lbs to find with Dunguib (and thats without him coming off the bridle!). At around 6/1 he could be worth a punt.

The one that interests me at a tasty price is the Willie Mullins trained Blackstairmountain.

Trends and stats are vital in Cheltenham, and this one ticks all the boxes. Having just the one run over hurdles is no bad thing in the Supreme, especially as he won his only start of timber, and he also has plenty of experience between Bumpers and on the flat (including a win over subsequent grade 1 scorer Hollo Ladies.

Irish trained runners also have a fantastic record, and Mullins is well able to win this race, taking it as recently as 2007 with Ebaziyan.

So while I think Dunguib is the most likely winner of the race, I wouldnt put anyone off a few quid on Blackstairmountain (with Paddy Power)

Selection: Dunguib (Evens, or as close to it)
Alternative: Blackstairmountain (12/1, Paddy Power)

Director Koevermans

2010-01-26T13:37:00.000-08:00

Wim Koevermans has a job on his hands, of that there was never any doubt. Tasked with position of developing young Irish footballers to an elite level is a big ask. Since Brian Kerr's days as youth team manager, the Republic of Ireland haven't tasted much success at underage levels. The U-21's failed to register a win in the European Championship qualifiers, and the general consensus is that we just dont have the quality coming through, the next Robbie Keane or Damien Duff.

Which is where Koevermans comes in. Two years ago, The FAI launched the Emerging Talent Programme, and in September 2008, the big Dutchman was unvieled as International Performance Director. It is his job to develop Irish stars of the future at international level.

At the time of the appointment, FAI chief executive John Delaney said; "The appointment emphasises our determination to bring the best talent to this country to develop Irish players. Wim will work closely with the managers of our male and female teams from Under-21 down and also the senior women's team to help them achieve their objectives. As head of the new national academy he will look to improve the quality of our young elite players and build on the work being done by the emerging talent programme."

The programme is now in full swing, and Koevermans has stamped his authority, not only on the elite levels of underage football, but right down to the grass-roots. On Thursday night in the wind and rain, Koevermans was joined by a team of FAI coaches at Knocklyon United, where they led a coaching session followed by a question and answer session for the club's managers.

Because underage football has moved on, gone are the days of clueless management and coaching. Clubs, like Knocklyon, are proactive in having their coaches coached, so they can run energetic, entertaining, strucutured, knowlegeable training sessions. And it shows on the pitch. Knocklyon now have 38 teams, including a nursery for five and six year-olds, right up to senior level. They won seven leagues and two cups last season, and are always expanding.

Every coach in the club, as a rule, must complete the Kick Start courses, and most continue on to the Youth Cert, with one completing his UEFA B Licence with a view to the A Licence. This, according to Koevermans, is where every club should be. He wants parents to become coaches, and emphasises the value of a parent coming in to coach a team; "Its so important, because working with a large group of kids isn't easy. We are very very happy that parents come in and want to help with clubs, and we can help. By having them attend the Kick Start courses or by putting on sessions for the coaches is great for the club, because this is how young players develop.

"It is so important to give that litlle bit of awareness to the coaches, so they know how to organise a training session, let the kids play, and make sure most of all, that its fun. The players must be kept interested because we need to keep them in the game. And thats why the Kick Start 1 and 2 are crucial. Like what we did tonight, to show them how to deal with certain situations, and it will only help them. On the training ground, and at the weekend, they will see the benefits. Because the main objective is to develop the kids as players."

With the lack of money in the League of Ireland over the last number of years, Ireland has fallen behind the powerful nations of Europe, many of whom boast elite training centres such as the French setup in Clairefontaine, which produced the likes of Anelka and Henry.

Many professional teams in Europe have acadamies, where the best players are sent to develop into superstars, which is where the Emerging Talent Program comes in; "We haven't got the structures in place in our professional clubs that you see on the continent, and thats why the Emerging Talent Programme is so important.

"We dont only care about the elite players, we care about all of football in Ireland, which feeds into the programme. Yet, the programme is helping to develop the next generation of Irish stars. We have the best players from within an area playing together, and if you have the best players playing together being coached by top coaches, players develop so quickly.

"I can see it happening already. The levels are already getting higher. These players are being trained to be international footballers, so we approach it that way. We coach it and analyse it with international standards, to tell the players that this is what needs to be done, and I hope to see the benefits over the coming years.

With the structure in place at the moment, numbers in many schoolboy leagues around the country begin to wane when they reach U16 and U17 levels, and Koevermans emphasises a need to alter the structure so that the top schoolboys who haven't travelled across the water arent lost from the game. He says; "We need to create the best competitions for players around the age of 16 and up. They need to be playing at a high level, regularly. These players should be playing 24, 26 games a season.

"A lot of hours in training and on the pitch in order to ensure that the development is continued, especially at such a crucial age. In Europe, in these acadamies, players are playing 5 days a week, putting in the hours needed to become top players, and thats what we need to be doing here, because we are already playing catch-up. We have to work on the system, and in the meantime, develop the elite players."

"We are working hard, with the regional centres and within the leagues we can identify the good players, get them together, but we only have them once a week and they go back to their clubs. It would be great to have them for longer, like in the acadamies but it would be great to have that setup here. That's what we are looking to do and there is still a lot of work to be done in organising good competitions and good player pathways, but its getting there.

"We need to also make sure that the coaches become better and better, because its them who can make all the difference. You can train kids five times a week, but if they dont learn, there is less effect. Coaching makes the difference, thats why the courses are so important within the FAI. We need to get our coaches to the level of the A Licence and B Licence for them to make an impact.

Local clubs need to start taking the initiative in Ireland if we are to become a force on the international stage. The Irish performance in France was encouraging to say the least, but we need to kick on from there, to improve on that performance, to qualfiy regularly for major competitions, which that starts with the local clubs, the grass-roots. And Knocklyon are an example of how a club can take the necessary steps to improve their players so the might produce a future international.

Craig Ryan is the aforemantioned coach who holds a Uefa B Licence, and he will be working with the rest of Knocklyon's coaches regularly in order help them develop, which of course has such a massive knock-on effect. Koevermans believes that this is the ideal, saying that "Of course I would love to see a "Coaching Director" within every club, but at the moment its not possible. What is possible is that every area has a coach who has the qualifications who can coach the coaches."

On local pitches week in, week out, you can see and hear advice coming from the touchline, be it from a coach or a parent, and sometimes it can turn sour. Young players berated for a mistake, with winning becoming overemphasised. According to Koevermans, young players starting out shouldn't need to focus on the result; "Kids should be allowed to play, if they make a mistake, they should be advised on how to make it better next time, its a learning curve. I dont want to see them just kicking the ball forward trying to get a result, I want to see them playing the game the right way, because when they are so young they need to enjoy it or they'll lose interest in football and we lose them from the game, which is the last thing we want to happen."

His job is a difficult one, but the impression is that Koevermans is up to the task. His enthusiasm on and off the training pitch are there to be seen, and the Emerging Talent Programme is in full swing. Only time will tell if Koevermans is the man for the job. The DDSL's U17's flew out to South Africa on Saturday afternoon, its not quite the acid test, but their progress wil be interesting nonetheless.

Jan Molby interview

2010-01-26T13:34:00.000-08:00

Liverpool legend Jan Molby was joined by over 100 potential stars of the future from Templeogue United on Saturday as he passed on some of his vast knowledge during a day’s coaching at the Tallaght Leisure Centre on Saturday morning.

The big Dane, who played more than 200 games in Liverpool’s all conquering team of the 80s, stressed the importance of proper coaching and facilties, and their benefits to clubs and young players starting out in the game.

He said; “The game has changed now from where it was 10, 15, even 20 years ago, everything has improved, from facilities, to coaching standards. The days of a parent coming in to run a team with no knowledge of the game are over, clubs are taking the steps to ensure their coaches have done a course or a badge, and you can see it from the rise in standards.”

Molby worked with kids ranging from 6-16 years old on Saturday and was pleasantly surprised by the standard on offer. He was full of praise for the work that has clearly gone into the coaching of the players; “a huge amount of credit must go to the coaches, because you can see that a lot of effort has gone into these kids.

“The vast majority of the them had a very good understanding of the game, which at such a young age, I believe, is vital. I firmly believe that you’re struggling if you havent grasped the game by the age of 12 or 13. And it’s a fine balance, because there is so much you want to give them as a coach.

“In essence, what it boils down to, is that football is a simple game. Because you create goals, you score goals and you stop the opposition scoring goals. That’s roughly it, there’s no need to over complicate things. On the other side, however, it’s key to entertain the players, because it’s a new breed of youngsters now. Thats why sessions need to be a little fancy, you need to keep them interested and entertained.”

Molby also sees a changing attitude towards young players looking to forge a career from the game. The days of players leaving home at very young ages is ending, and puts it down to the improvements of the game at grass-root level; “There has always been a rush in the British game for young lads to go to acadamies at 7 or 8, but I dont there should be such a rush. The levels of coaching at local clubs has improved so much that I think a player can comfortably stay at home with his club until 16 or 17.

“So many players get left by the wayside still in their teens, and are lost from the game forever. So many players simply aren’t ready at 18 and 19. Only the exceptional one are ready at that age, and i feel sorry for the kids nowadays. When i started playing at the age of five, i just wanted to play football. I never had dreams of being a professional footballer making 100 thousand a week.

“That’s where the game has changed, everybody wants a cut, football is an industry now. In my day, we played a sport, now its a business. Everything has changed, from how you train to how you live and what you earn. Everything...except for the size of the pitches and the laws of the game. There are some things that I envy the players today. Obviously training facilties have improved along with technological advances and diet regimes, but aside from that i don't envy today's players.

“The pressure on players today is huge, they cant walk down the street anymore. Take Liverpool for example, the marquee players, such as Gerrard and Torres must feel the weight of pressure knowing that they’re relied upon to deliver every week. The Liverpool team in the 80s had players like Dalglish, Barnes, Houghton, Whelan Hansen, Rush, Aldridge etc...there was quality throughout that team and you just knew that it wasnt just you that needed to deliver.

“And it affects everyone, from the players, the staff and the fans, because footballs such big business now. The fans still love the game, but i can see them slowly falling out of love with the players. Players showing up in 200 thousand pound cars, and you hear them saying certain things and doing certain things. The loyalty has gone, and the players have to be careful.

“Not so long ago, you hear the stories of Ashley Cole nearly crashing his car over an extra few grand a week and players fishing for a big money move, you just cant do that and not expect the fans to become disillusioned. But football fans are a great breed. Someone only said to me this morning, ‘It’s still a great game to watch’, but believe me its ten times better to play. And thats not just at the level I played at, its at every level, from kids, to amateur football, to the very top.”

Molby alludes to his time in the great “Danish Dynamite” team of the 80s as another example of how the game has changed. He remembers that period fondly saying he “wouldn't change that for the world, we played some magic football. I was lucky in my career that i went from playing total football with Ajax, total football with Denmark, and then I was part of such a great Liverpool team.

"And it was a case of a bunch of great players put together and told to go and play, we barely needed any coaching. Because we all got on so well to, we trusted each other, you couldnt make it up! Which is something that changed towards the end of my Liverpool career...all of a sudden teammates werent getting on, and i had never had that at any stage of my career, we always got on like a house on fire. But then you had the “Spice Boys” and the "Older Boys" and all of a sudden we had a group of players who didn't get on like they used to, and success dried up.”

At Liverpool, Molby played with a number of Irish legends and was gushing in his praise for the likes of Aldridge, Houghton and Ronnie Whelan in particular: “They were great players. John Aldridge, as a goalscorer was unbelievable. I was also a great Ray Houghton fan, he was let go far too early from Liverpool, but possibly out of the Irish players I played with, Ronnie Whelan was consistently the best.

“Ronnie was a great, great player, he could play anywhere. It was so natural and easy for him. I actually asked Kenny (Dalglish) not too long ago what might have happened to Ronnie if I had not broken my foot. Because we had Houghton on the right, Barnes on the left, and Steve McMahon and I were certain starters in the middle, Ronnie only really got his chance because of my injury. All Kenny could reply was; “You’ll never know.”

“After that, because Ronnie was so good, it was nearly two years by the time I got back into the team, and I had to change positions, cbecause of Ronnie I ended up playing over 100 games at centre-half for Liverpool.”

Oliver Bradys Festival Preview night

2010-01-19T08:42:00.001-08:00

Oliver Brady will be joined by a number of familiar faces from the racing world and beyond for his Cheltenham Festival Preview night on the 23rd February in the Glencarn Hotel in Castleblaney in aid of the Shabra Charity Foundation (Cancer Research and Kenyan Orphanage).
Brady will be joined by the incomparable At the Races presenter Matt Chapman as host, and will include an all-star panel of Dermot Weld, Davy Russell, Des Scahill, Tony Martin, Graham Bradley, and Christian Williams among others.
Also joining the panel via satellite link is all-conquering trainer Paul Nicholls who will no doubt offer plenty of insight into his festival team, including the mouth-watering clash between Denman and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup.
Speaking at Naas racecourse yesterday, Brady said that punters “will not want to miss this preview night, it is the greatest cast ever assembled, there will be celebrities in the audience, and we have one or two surprise guests up our sleeves that will blow you away.”
For information, visit www.shabracharity.com

Naas review 19th Jan

2010-01-19T08:31:00.000-08:00

Noel Meade was full of praise for stable jockey Paul Carberry, who returned after an enforced spell on the sidelines to give Oscar Looby a peach of a ride to land the feature Grade 2 Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase at Naas yesterday. Meade said; “Paul’s a class jockey isn’t he, he has given him an absolutely fantastic ride, just sitting in and letting the other two boys go at it up front, and we’ve missed that. It’s been great to have Davy Condon to step in for Paul as he’s been riding out of his skin, and in a way they’re quite similar.”
Oscar Looby (4/1) jumped brilliantly to beat disappointing 4/5 favourite Alpha Ridge by three lengths with Telenor a distant third on ground described by Carberry as “almost unraceable, there’s that much depth in it.” Meade has the Ten Up Chase in Navan next month as Oscar Looby’s next target and also nominated the Irish National as a possible long term option.
The biggest cheer of the day was reserved for Oliver Brady’s Ebadiyan, who rallied gamely in the final strides to deny Noel Meade’s Muirhead by a short head to win the Listed Limestone Lad Hurdle at 9/1. Afterwards, the crowds gathered around the winner’s enclosure to enjoy a typical Oscar winning performance from Monaghan’s finest, and a jubilant Brady identified three Cheltenham Festival targets for his tough grey. First preference will be the Champion Hurdle, where he was quoted by Victor Chandler at 66/1. Other targets include the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and the Coral Cup.
Elsewhere on the card, Galway Plate hero Ballyholland (6/1) showed his well being ahead of a tilt at the Grand National as he landed the 2 mile novice hurdle in fine style under Ruby Walsh, and trainer Colm McBratney was understandably delighted with his charge. Boylesports cut the winner from 50/1 to 40/1 for the Aintree showpiece and McBratney said; “The National dream is still alive. He surprised me the way he quickened up and travelled so well, and Ruby said the hurdles were only getting in his way. We’ll have another run over hurdles before the National and take it from there.”
In the opening maiden hurdle, Liam Burke’s Case Study justified some solid market support to win at 7/1, staying on powerfully up the hill under Davy Russell to win by six lengths from odds-on favourite Cadspeed with Hellyhunter in third. Picking it up from long time leader Stress turning in, Case Study quickened up nicely to win going away for owner Michael O’ Leary.
Four Chimney’s, who won twice at Limerick over the Christmas, made it a hat-trick of handicap hurdle wins when running out a four and a half length winner under top-weight for Willie Austin and Andrew Lynch, with Peak Raider in second.
Mighty Bob continued his love affair with the track, making all under the talented Conor Maxwell to beat Bemo Two by seven lengths. Mighty Bob is trainer Ger Farrell’s only horse in training, and Farrell was understandably delighted with the performance. He said; “That was great. He loves it around here, and goes on any ground, we’ll aim him at something similar next time out.”

Punchestown Friday

2009-05-01T02:40:00.000-07:00

Sorry bout the lack of posts in the last two days, been up to my tits in college/study etc etc

Should be a good days racing today, but incredibly difficult to find a couple of winners.

Believe it or not, the rain helps us, even if the suit gets a bit wet!

OK, first things first...forget about the opener. Stupid race.

Moving onto the 4.20. The EVENTUS MARQUEES HANDICAP CHASE and try as I might, I just cant get away from Hold The Pin. He was travelling sweetly when he tipped up 3 out at Uttoxeter in the Midlands National on the day after Cheltenham - backed him!!
He also has fair course form, he probably would have won this last year but for a fall at the last, and was second in a handicap hurdle here in February.
But most importantly, he'll handle the conditions. He has winning form when the words soft and heavy are in the going description, and with all that rain around its gonna take some getting.

Selection Hold The Pin EW @7/1

In the 4.55, The BETFAIR NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE, Jaamid is wortth a small each way investment in the hope that he's none the worse for his 2nd to the smart Jayo in a novice chase earlier this week. Meeting Jayo 16lbs worse than he would have in a handicap, it was a really good run to finish only 4 lengths behind the well fancied winner in second.
Back in handicap company, Jaamid can hopefully can follow up his recent Fairyhouse win and return to the winners enclosure.

Selection Jaamid EW @ 10/1

The big one is next, The RABOBANK CHAMPION HURDLE, which sees Cheltenham scorers Quevega and Punjabi lock horns, as well as Aintree score Solwith, not to mention Hardy Eustace, Jered, Muirhead and the rest.
Its a very interesting race, and one which I have a particularly strong fancy in the shape of Aintree hurdle winner Solwith.
Ultra progressive, this one's form all season has worked out extremely well, 2nd to Nineteeth Minute in a listed race (followers of this blog know how that worked out) before winning the Red Mills Hurdle, and going on to beat Fiveforthree who franked the form in the Grade 1 here yesterday. The ground conditions will hold no fears to Solwith, and if anything they will bring his proven stamina into play.

Selection Solwith win @ 3/1

Muirhead could be the danger here with conditions to suit and I will be having a saver on the Meade horse, if anyones looking for something at a bigger price.

In the 6.05, The LAND ROVER CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE, Mikael D'Haguenet will take all the beating, and with conditions to suit, should have far too much for stablemate Cousin Vinny.
End of story, enough said...I'll be shocked if he doesn't win here.

Selection Mikael D'Haguenet win @ 4/6

The 6.40 is the STAR BEST FOR RACING COVERAGE NOVICE HURDLE and Copper Bleu gets the nod. His form included a 14l maiden win from Riverside Theatre, who wasthird to Hurricane FLy here on Tuesday, a fourth placing in the Supreme Novices Hurdle behind Go Native. He also ran a cracker at Aintree, and on all known form, he is the best horse in the race.
If Zaarito bounced back to his best form he'd take this in a canter, but there are doubts if he can do that after a couple of uncovincing runs this season.

Selection Copper Bleu win @ 15/8

The two bumpers look horrible, and its best to hold fire with the cash until tomorrow.

Fingers crossed we'll have a good day,
Happy Punting,
Ian

Punchestown Day 1

2009-04-27T14:32:00.000-07:00

Ok the last bit of top class racing of the National Hunt season starts today and what a week it promises to be, with no less than 11 Grade One's to sink our teeth into.

Day 1 could really be a day for the punters, as all of the fancied runners appear to have really solid claims.

We've three of them today, but beforehand the action kicks off with the KHC Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase (for the Ladies Perpetual Cup) (Hunter Chase) over the unique banks course. Its not one to really get stuck into as a lot of runners form is mainly in point-to-points, but one that really stands out is Freneys Well, who represents the all-conquering Enda Bolger team and comes here with every chance after running a cracker in second at Fairyhouse last time. This trip is ideal and he could take this on the way to a crack at the more prostigious La Touche Cup. Wedger Pardy won this 12 months ago for Ted Walsh and, while he was out of sorts last time, he represents the danger.

Selection: Freneys Well, win @ Evs

The next is the first big one of the week, the Grade 1 Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle and sees the rematch of Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Go Native, and the most hyped horse in training, Willie Mullins' Hurricane Fly.

Noel Meade's two-time C&D winner was impressive winning at Cheltenham, and a reproduction of that effort would normally see him hard to beat, but Hurricane Fly gave him a 10 length beating in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas without being fully extended, and he's taken to confirm superiority again in this. He is extremely highly thought of by the champion trainer, so much so that he's been entered in the English and Irish Champion hurdles already this season, as well as the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Hopefully the fact that he hasnt run since Christmas, and Go Native was so good at Cheltenham will make the price that bit more appealing, and if he's any sort of backable price, we should be lumping on.

Selection: Hurricane Fly, win @ 4/5

The Masterchef Hospitality Handicap Hurdle is a typically tricky affair which I've narrowed down to 3 runners. Only one winners has carried over 11st in the last ten years, which for me rules out original fancy Silverhand (11st4).

The three to focus on are Imperial Hills (Mullins & Walsh), An Cathaoir Mor, and Native Clan. The latter is progressive, and is potentially thrown in with a featherweight, but its reflected in the price, and the Imperial Cup could have worked out better, so I'm willing to pass over the likely favourite.

Imperial Hills ran well after a break to be sixth in the big Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse a couple of weeks ago which should leave him spot on for this, and represents the all-conquering Mullins-Walsh alliance. He's progressive and gets in under the 11stone mark, and he would have finished a lot closer at Fairyhouse but for a couple of errors at the last two flights.

But the one for me here is An Cathaoir Mor, who has won a couple of Handicap hurdles since finishing 6 lengths behind the top-class Cousin Vinny in January. That form alone would be good enough to win here off a light weight, but the fact that he is progreesing quickly, and has won a couple of handicaps makes him the call here. He had a pipe opener at The Curragh (4 lengths behind Ebadiyan) and could potentially different class to these.

Selection: An Cathaoir Mor, each way @ 10/1

Master Minded wins the big one, but he's a 1/3 shot top price, and thats not a betting proposition.

What could be done, would be to double up the Nicholls champion with The RSA Chase winner Cooldine in the Boylesports.com Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1) . Willie Mullins' novice couldn't have been more impressive at The Festival when beating Horner Woods by 16 lengths. He has only had 4 runs this season, and only tasted defeat ove an inadequate 2 miles. He represents Ireland's best Gold Cup chance next season, and will should end his season on a high before a shot at the big boys next year. If the heavens open, Paul Nolans Joncol could provide the biggest threat, but he really shouldn't be up to Cooldine's level.

Recommendation : Master Minded/ Cooldine double.

There we have it,
Thats day 1.

I know its not too original, and the prices aren't great, but fingers crossed they can win, and we'll find a few corkers over the rest of the week.
Happy Punting,
Ian

Aintree Day 1

2009-04-01T10:52:00.000-07:00

Well well well,

Day 1 of the National meeting is upon us, and I cant wait to get over there for our second national weekend.

The meeting kicks off with an absolute belter in the form of the Grade2 Liverpool Hurdle, run over 3 miles. It sees many of the protagonists from the Ladbrokes Wordle Hurdle renew rivalry, but as far as I can see this boils down to two.

Big Bucks was impressive when winning at Cheltenham, in the process posting a serious official rating of 174. He is a worthy favourite but I have a little doubt that he has had a tough season and may just have left a little at the cotswolds. Another worry I have is that he tends to hit a flat spot in his races...something that he (and Inglis Drever) got away with around a staying track like Cheltenham. Aintree places more of an emphasis on speed and Big Bucks might just get caught out tommorrow.

He may leave the door ajar for Mighty Man to extend his record around the track to 4 from 4. He posted a highly encouraging comeback at Cheltenham in what was seen as a prep for this, finishing fifth after showing up for a long way. Reunited with Richard Johnson tomorrow, for me Mighty Man is at worst a place certainty, and great value at 9/2.

Recommendation: Mighty Man e/w @ 9/2

The second race on the card is the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle, and while I may do this at my peril, at the prices I'm willing to bypass the Nicholls runner Hebridean. When I was the card I rated Hebridean a good each way bet at around the 8/1 mark...At 100/30 he can win at that price for all I care. He has too much to find to warrant a bet at the price.

The two Im focussing on are Triumph second and fourth Walkon and Starluck. Walkon showed tenacious battling qualities to run Zaynar all the way up the hill in the Triumph and will be a tough nut to crack, but the way Starluck travelled up until the run to the last at a track that wouldn't have suited him was quite taking, and on this flat track over the minimum trip he may well just have too much pace for Alan Kings charge. He was ultra impressive earlier in the season when winning around flat tracks such as Kempton and Folkestone. Of course there's extremely little between the two and I couldn't put anyone off backing Walkon to confirm his Cheltenham superiority.

Recommendation: Starluck @ 11/4

The Totesport Bowl is a little tougher than it seems. Although Denman ran a blinder considering the circumstances leading up to the race in the Gold Cup, its not quite the penalty kick it seems here. It can be argued that as a fragile horse (heart problems) this isnt the race to be running him in...quick ground, sharp flat track, and he possibly had a tough race in the Gold Cup. Either way the vibes coming out of the stable are that he is bouncing since that run.
If all is well with the 'Tank', then he hacks up here.

In Opposition are largely inferior rivals, but the two who may trouble Denman are old rival Exotic Dancerand stablemate Star de Mohaison. Exotic Dancer won this race with any amount in hand and wasnt too far behind Denman in the Gold Cup. You get the impressiion tho if either Denman or Kauto Star are on top form he'll never beat either. However, if Denman 'bounces' after Cheltenham Exotic may take advantage.
Star De Mohaison is extremely intersting. Won the RSA Chase and followed up here before a lenghty layoff. It could be that he's coming back to his best slowly and this could be his opportunity to get back to the big time. As ever, the assistance of one R Walsh can only help.

Not very original but I'm wiling to put my (not so) hard earned on "The Tank" coming back to his best and turning this one into a procession

Recommendation Denman @ 10/11

The 4.55 is also interesting.

Chapoturgeon routed a substandard field in the Jewson last month, but he had previously been held in very high regard and is a worthy favourite. If he can bounce out and jump the way he did at Cheltenham he'll take the world of beating. P lanet of Sound has every chance if reproducing his Arkle third behind Forpaddydeplasterer and Kalahari King but for whatever reason I've never seen him as potentially top class.

The interesting one for me is Tartak. He was badly hampered in the Arkle and would have finished a lot closer if it wasn't for that. He gets this trip really well and at 6/1 he represents great each way value (as long as there are no non-runners). Its an eight horse field an that gives us each way terms of first three.

Recommendation Tartak e/w @ 6/1

Others: 4.20; Valain didnt run his best race in the Grand Annual but he gets in here off bottom weight and was previously progressive. Incidentally he finished ahead of Poquelin that day yet Poquelin is an 8/1 shot, while Valain is twice the price...he ticks all the right boxes, and again, represents great each way value.

In the lucky last ill be backing Altilhar or Font e/w but its a horrible race. Probably best left alone.

Hope y'all have a great day..enjoy it, its one of the best days racing of the season.

Happy Punting,

Ian

Sesenta in the county

2009-03-13T01:01:00.000-07:00

Just a little update on today.the weights in the county went up which won't suit sesenta.fingers crossed it'll be fine but she's quite small so carrying the weight won't help her.i'm not laying out tho and hopefully she'll run well either way.

Gold Cup Day

2009-03-12T15:03:00.000-07:00

Well here we are,

Day 4, and we're on somewhat of a retrieval mission after yesterdays debacle.

I was utterly dissapointed with Kasbah Bliss. I really didn't see that coming.
Voy Por Ustedes ran a better race than Kasbah, but really, he made two extremely costly errors, especially at the 4th last, which cost him lengths, and more importantly, momentum.
In a championship race you just cant afford to make those kind of errors if you expect to win.

But moving on, Friday the 13th is going to be a cracker, with the Triumph, the Albert Bartlett, and of course, the Gold Cup to get stuck into, as well as a few juicy handicaps.

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle:

Zaynar and Walkon have been at the head of the market for months now, so its best to start with these two. When they met earlier this season, Zaynar dished out a 4 length beating to Walkon, however, he was recieving 7lbs from his rival that he wont get today which would seem to swing things in Walkon's favour. Since that run Zaynar appeared lazy when winning at Ascot and the application of cheekpieces today, for me, is a negative. He will though be suited to an attritional test an will get further in time, he will definitely be in the shake up.

The 7 lbs swing that Walkon recieves from Zaynar today leads me to believe he can reverse the placings. He also boasts superior form since the pair met, having won a Grade 2, before winning over course and distance last month. His Trainer Alan King has a fantastic record in this race, having won it with Penzance and Katchit in recent years, and sadlling Franchoek to be 2nd last year, and whoever beats Walkon may win this.

The one who I've backed, and hopefully the one to do this is Starluck. Alan Flemings charge showed smart form on the flat, and is an extremely quick jumper, something that will stand him in good stead in this race. He has been ultra impressive on his 3 hurdle starts this term, beating Tuanku on his debut (who Alan King thought highly of) before slamming his rivals at Folkestone and Kempton (including Wednesday's Fred winter winner Silk Affair by over 20 lengths). Something we've learned this week is to back horses whose form has been franked, and this is a great example of just that. The one negative is that he has been running on flat tracks, and this represents something completely different, but Im willing to take that chance.

David Pipe is particularly sweet on Master of Arts (thinks he could be next years Champion hurdler) and he could be anything, so this contest is wide open.

Zaynar, Walkon and Master of Arts are worthy adversaries, who i couldnt put anyone off backing, but hopefully Starluck can keep progressing and take this one for Alan Fleming.

Recommendation: Starluck each way @7/1
Danger: Walkon

2.05 County Hurdle

The old cavalry charge, where stakes are kept low, and trends followed to the letter.
Theres a few i like in this against the field, and you'll notice they're all 5 year olds (who have a great record in this race). The two fancied runners are Aachen, who has been nothing but impressive for Venetia Williams (whos string are in great form) when winning all three hurdles starts, and also boasts impressive winning form in France. At 8/1 he has a great chance.

As does Sunnyhillboy for JP, Jonjo and McCoy, he has been extremely impressive winning his last three starts and could still be ahead of the handicapper. He's won here already this season and looks to be still improving.

Another 5 year old who may run well at a huge price is Sesenta, the Willie Mullins filly who ran Tuesday's ridiculously impressive winner Quevega to 4 lengths on their last start at Punchestown. She's a strong stayer, which is needed around Cheltenham, and has always mixed it in good company. She could be a fly in the ointment, and Paul Townend's 3 lbs claim could make a huge difference today. She will run all the way to the line and hopefully it'll be in front of the rest.

Reccomendation: Sesenta each way @ 33/1
Danger: Aachen

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Pride of Dulcote and Cape Tribulation are rated in the 150s and have been impressive so far this season, but Pride of Dulcote has his jumping problems (he was the one who ruptured Ruby's spleen) and he is flattered by his rating. He does look good though, but is plenty short enough in the betting.
Cape Tribulation has been impressive so far this season, particularly when bolting in by 17 lengths from Junior in a Doncaster Grade 2. He has appreciated the step up in trip and will take a lot of beating. He was entered in the Ballymore on Wednesday but this seems like the logical option.

The one for me is Charles Byrnes' Weapons Amnesty, who won his maiden by 28 lengths before going on to win a Grade 3 at Limerick (beating todays rival Browns Bailey) and just failing to beat Roberto Goldback (second to Supreme winner Go Native subsequently) when stepping back down in trip in a Leopardstown Grade 2. He's a thorough stayer though and reverting back to 3 miles should be right up his street. There has been money for this one over the last couple of days, and Charles Byrnes rarely leave the money behind when its down. Fingers crossed he can at least run into a place. At 11/1 he's the best value in the race

Recommendation: Weapons Amnesty each way @ 11/1
Danger: Cape Tribulation

3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup

The big one...everyone has an opinion on this, and the main contenders are Barbers Shop, Madison du Berlais, Exotic Dancer, Denman, Neptune Collonges, and Kauto Star.

Starting with Barbers Shop, he was very impressive winning when stepped up to 3 miles at Sandown, and was a fine second to Ryanair winner Imperial Commander in the Paddy Power, and will run his race, but he has a lot to find with the principals, and a place could be his best result.

Madison du Berlais won the Hennesey impressively and subsequently slammed a below par Denman last month at Kempton. That wasnt Denman's true running though, and although Madison du Berlais is a much improved horse this season, I for one would feel cheated if he won this, he has too much to find.

Exotic Dancer has followed Kauto Star home a number of times in his career but was argubly better than ever when winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas (Denman went on to win the Gold Cup ater taking the Lexus last season). He represents great each way value.

On to Paul Nicholls...
First up is Neptune Collonge, last years 3rd has done nothing but impress over the last couple of seasons. He's plundered a couple of Grade 1's in Ireland, and has rock solid each way claims today. He was only a nose behind Kauto Star last year, but he will be inconvenienced by the drying ground.

Last years hero Denman suffered from a fibrillating heart in the Autumn and made his belated seasonal return at Kempton in the Levy Board Chase where he was extremely dissapointing when beaten by Madison du Berlais. He seems to have bottomed out after his top weight performance in the Hennessey, the RSA chase, and the Gold Cup. He looks as if he's fallen out of love with the game and at 6/1 he can win for all i care at that price.

And then there's Kauto Star, former Champion, and 3 times King George winner. He wasnt at his best in last years renewal, but Paul Nicholls thinks he has found the secret to him (keeping him fresh) and the quickening ground plays right into his hands. He was extremely impressive in the King George, and he reportedly worked all over Master Minded at Ditcheat last week. If he gets into a rhythm he could turn this into a procession, and continue Ruby and Nicholls' fantastic week.

Recommendation: Kauto Star @ 2/1
Danger: Exotic Dancer

4.4o Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle

Hangover, for Conor O Dwyer, has great each way claims in this. He won a hot Leopardstown handicap last time out when extremely well backed, and is the apple of his trainer's eye. He is quickly improving and could be a step ahead of the handicapper. He has been backed into 14/1 from 25/1 over the last week, and has a lovely racing weight of 11"3'. Paul Townend gets the leg up, and is probably the best jockey in the race. It is a wide open race and although David Pipe runs eight in his dads race they could play second fiddle to Hangover.

Recommendation: Hangover each way @14/1

Its gonna be a great day, and after Tuesday and Wednesday we've locked in some serious profits...hopefully we can top up and win a few more quid today. Either way, its been a great week. Roll on Aintree, Punchestown and Fairyhouse.

Thanks for reading, enjoy the day, and Happy Punting.

Ian

The winds of change

2009-03-12T08:30:00.001-07:00

Oh Dear!!!

Day 3 Cheltenham 2009

2009-03-11T10:01:00.000-07:00

What a day!!

Karabak held his own to keep us on an even keel, and Ruby done us a nice turn when hacking in on Cooldine, but at around ten past 4, when Paddy Flood pushed out Ninetieth Minute to win the Coral, Wednesday night instantly became a write-off!!!

Hope you all got on, and hopefully we can pick up on Day 3 where we left off...

It's traditionally the weakest day's racing of the week, and for the moment, I'm going to concentrate on the two Grade 1's and the Freddie William Festival Plate until I can do some serious study on the other handicaps.

2.40 Ryanair Chase

One of my two bankers of the week runs in this "2m5f Championship" in the shape of Voy Por Ustedes. Former winner of the Arkle and Champion Chase here, he comes into his own at Cheltenham and particularly in the Spring. After being put in his place by the reigning two-time Champion Chaser Master Minded last season he emphatically reversed form at two and a half miles around Aintree. He ran very well for around this trip in the King George behind Kauto Star, and was ultra impressive in Ascot's Commercial First Chase last month in his prep. The only worry is that those runs at 2 and a half were around flat tracks, and its not 100% he'll get the trip around Cheltenham. Its only a slight concern though and he should still come out on top.
For all I can see nothing can touch "Voy Por" in this and represents a decent bet at 11/10.

For those of you who aren't partial to a bet at such a tight price, each way alternatives include Tidal Bay, Imperial Commander, and last years winner Our Vic.
The latter will wear the blinkers again and his connections will hope they do the trick again-but he's 11 now and will find it very tough to beat Voy Por Ustedes.

Imperial Commander has a course and distance win under his belt, and if back to his best, he could trouble the selection. The form of the yard is still a concern even tho they had a winner in Tricky Trickster on Day 3 in the 4-miler (been one of the only Twiston Davies horses to run with credit through the yards bad patch). Im still not convinced and would think Voy Por will have Imperial Commanders measure.

The real danger for me is Tidal Bay. He won last years Arkle and is in this to avoid Master Minded. Howard Johnson has struggled to finf=d his right trip but this looks his ideal distance, and if he puts his best foot forward he has real claims. For me tho the one to be on is Alan Kings Voy Por Ustedes, while Tidal Bay is more of a sporting price as an alternative.

Voy Por Ustedes @11/10
or Tidal Bay each way @ 8/1

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The second banker of the week goes here in the shape of Kasbah Bliss, who was a close 2nd to Inglis Drever in last years renewal and has since shown bags of improvement on the flat, winning the Prix Gladiateur at a canter and beat Yeats in the Cadran on Arc day. Trainer Francois Doumen is extremely bullish about his chances, stating that Kasbah Bliss is even better than dual winner of this race Baracouda. He showed his wellbeing when absolutely bolting up in the Rendelsham at Haydock on his last start and in my humble opinion he should be a 4/6 shot, such is his class.

The dangers are Punchestowns, who has done nothing wrong this season, winning the Long Walk Hurdle, and narrowly going down to Big Bucks in the Cleeve whan conceding 8lbs to his rival. Nicky Henderson has reported his charge in great form and has been napped by Jim McGrath in a preview night in Maynooth (take note). He doesnt possess Kasbah Bliss' class though and shouldnt be good enough to beat the selection.

Big Bucks is also a danger but he wouldn't want to hit his customary flat spot at the top of the hill with Kasbah Bliss around. He may well be a staying chaser in the making but i cant see him having the class to trouble Kasbah.

If the forecast 5/4 is too tigh, then stump for Punchestowns but I will be shocked if he beats Kasbah, and this represents my biggest bet of the week.

Kasbah Bliss @5/4 (nap of the week)

4.00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate

Tom Taaffe, when giving me Ninetieth Minute, was also pretty sweet on the each way claims of Finger on the Pulse in the Festival Plate. At last years Festival "Finger", won the Jewson Novices chase over the same course and distance as this, with the likes of Barbers Shop and Big Bucks behind him. Taaffe told me he's in great form and has been laid out for this race. It's a huge thing for a horse to have winning form at the festival, as they go off 'lickety split', around a unique undulating course, and so far the trainer is 100% at this years festival!!! He hasn't got too much weight to carry and hopefully he could run in to a place at the least.

Ping Pong Sivola rates a huge danger, as he slammed yeasterdays winner Tricky Trickster over course and distance and gets in here off a feather weight. As I have said before, course experience is crucial and I wouldnt put anyone off a saver on Venetia Williams' charge at 11/1.

Finger on the Pulse each way @ 11/1
Ping Pong Sivola saver @ 11/1

In the opener, one that fits the stats is the Jonjo O' Neill trained, JP McManus owned, Tony McCoy ridden Kia Kaha. He won on his fencing debut this season, and brushed aside a fall on his penultimate start to win well last time out. He jumps well, travels well and stays well, and has a fine racing weight of 11 stone 1 pound. 7 year olds have won all 4 renewals of this race, and he handles the course, having won here before. At 9/1 he represents a sporting each way chance. Tranquil Sea rates a huge danger if he can revert back to last springs Grade 1 winning form, but hasn't looked like he's in love with the chasing game. If he puts his best foot forward he could go very close.

Kia Kaha each way @9/1 (small bet)

In the Pertemps Final (2.05) the ex-Godolphin inmate Scriptwriter could go very close, as he has been running with credit in defeat, and off 10"8', he could be a dot on the handicap. This horse was third in the Ebor behind Purple Moon and was rated 104 on the flat. If Howard Johnson has ironed out the little mistakes that have cost him he could be a major player at 14/1.

Scriptwriter each way @ 14/1

Happy Punting,
Ian

2009-03-10T16:02:00.000-07:00

Well Day 1 went pretty well. P Carberry got us off to a flyer, and after the disappointment of the Arkle, we had a run of seconds which kept us in profit.

Maljimar and Celestial Halo went desperately close, and it could have been the greatest punting day of my career...if only, but that's racing.

Either way its given us funds to play around for the week, and hopefully we can pick up where we left off yesterday.

Day 2:
Wednesday 11th March:

1:30, National Hunt Chase

The 4 miler is extremely tough to unravel, and I've narrowed it down to four.
Coe ran a cracker to finish a 3 and a half length second to Rambling Minster in Haydock's Blue Square Gold Cup after an impressive win in the Tim Molony. He is still on the upgrade and could go close. The 4 mile trip looks right up his street.

Forest Leaves has been a model of consistency this season and following an agonising defeat on New Years Eve in Punchestown, he got his reward when running out an impressive winner of the National trial at the same venue over 3 and a half miles. Trainer Eddie O Grady has a superb festival record and this thorough stayer cant be ruled out.

Kornati Kid is the highest rated horse on ratings and although he looks comfortable on left hand tracks, winning well at Wetherby in December, he has saved his best performances for right handed tracks, and he seems to jump a touch right handed, which is a concernbecause they've 24 to jump today. He is ,however, extremely progressive and looks like he's crying out for this trip. The Wetherby win was a Grade 2 and beat another very decent performer in Will be Done. If on top form he'll be very hard to beat.

Parsons Pistol, for the in form Noel Meade and Nina Carberry partnership will have each way claims at the least with a repeat of his Grade 2 win in desperate conditions at Naas, winning by 19 lengths. He may however be flattered by the form as the ground was atrocious and it seemed a weak Grade 2.

So I'm gonna plump for Kornati Kid at around the 8/1 mark, but I wouldn't put anyone off having a saver on any of the others.

Kornati Kid each way @ 8/1,
(Forest Leaves, Parsons Pistol, or Coe alternatively)

2.05, Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle

Diamond Harry has been at the head of the market all season following impressive wins in the Challow and at Cheltenham. He seems to be regressing slightly though, and hung badly left on the run on his last run. His attitude is slightly questionable, and isn't hard to pass over, in what looks like his toughest test to date.

Mad Max is a brute of a horse and beat Karabak on his hurdling debut earlier this season, he may not like the forecast quicker ground however and looks a staying chaser in the making. He might just find one or two have that that extra bit of tow.

Mikhael d'Haguenet has been ultra impressive on all of his starts at home this season, including when winning the Slaney Hurdle and the Barry and Sandra Kelly memorial. He's been referred to as a machine by Ruby Walsh and if I'm honest, I couldnt put anyone off backing him. The main concern is the forecast going-the horse has a high knee action which means he likes soft or even heavy ground, and has done all of his winning on soft or heavy. He may just get caugt out by the quicker ground.

Which leads me to Karabak, who was beaten by Mad Max on his hurdling debut but has done nothing but impress since. He has winning course form when flooring odds on shot Mahonia here in December, before absolutely bolting up by 17 lengths in an Ascot Grade 2 when stepped up in trip. bought by JP Macmanus since he looks the ideal type to take this. If you can get a bit of 4/1 on Karabak, then I'd recommend a decent sized each way bet as I cant see him out of the frame.

Karabak each way @ 4/1, or win 7/2

2.40: RSA Chase

I'm all over Cooldine in this, especially now that Forpaddydeplasterer has franked the form in yeasterday's Arkle. Cooldine has been expertly campaigned this season with an eye on this race, and has the services of Ruby Walsh (picked him over What a Friend). He is potentially a top class staying chaser and is all heart (racked up a 5 timer in novice hurdles last season, before a game fourth in the Grade 1 stayers hurdle at Punchestown), and represents a knocking good bet at 4/1!

Cooldine @ 4/1

3.20: Champion Chase

No bet here-Master Minded should win but at the forecast 1/3 I cant have a bet-Maybe Well Chief or Briareus each way but last years winner shouldnt really be troubled by anyone in this field.

4.00 Coral Cup

Gold Cup winning trainer Tom Taaffe told me in a recent interview that he was paricularly sweet on Ninetieth Minute, and that this Listed winner is very very well. He runs off his Irish mark, and has a lovely racing weight of 10 stone 3lbs. The form of his last win has been franked in no uncertain terms when Solwith ran away with the Red Mills Trial (Grade 2) and at the forecast prices, I think he represents cracking each way value.

Ninetieth Minute each way @16-20/1

4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle.

A wide open event that could go to another recent JP McManus purchase in Miss Sarenne, who boasts decent form in France, and looked to have her hurdling debut in Britain sewn up when tipping up at the last at Plumpton. Providing that fall hasnt left its mark, she could go one better.

Miss Sarenne each way @ 7/1

5.15 Champion Bumper

Take your pick from the Irish runners, particularly Willie Mullins'. Sicilian Secret appears to be the first string, but I like Meath All Star for Paul Townend (backed him antepost). He won his bumper well and could go close. ALl of the Mullins runners may do well however to hold off Dermot Welds' Rite of Passage, but the price is gone now. Dunguib has been the most impressive winner in Ireland this season and will make them work, while Paul Nolans Shinrock Paddy won a Cheltenham Bumper already this season (as did Cork All Star before taking this 2 years ago).
As I said I've backed Meath All Star, but either of Dunguib, Shinrock Paddy or Rite of Passage would be worth a small bet.

Meath All Star each way @ 16/1
(alternatively Dunguib, Shinrock Paddy or Rite of Passage)

Hopefully today can be as good as yesterday, fingers crossed for a winner or two.
Happy Punting,

Ian

2009-03-09T16:54:00.001-07:00

It's finally here.

We've been waiting for the last 361 days or so for this to come back around and now its back,
the Olympics of jumps racing, The Cheltenham National Hunt Festival.

As always people have their bankers, and this year's no different with the likes of Cousin Vinny, Binocular, L'ami, Kasbah Bliss, Voy Por Ustedes and Kauto Star.

On paper they all should come in but we all know that at Cheltenham, this just doesn't happen.
But hopefully over the course of four days, and 26 races, we can find a few winners, at some nice prices, and hopefully drag ourselves out of this recession.

Feel free to leave your comments and opinions, as ill be posting my selections every night.

Tuesday 10th March:
Supreme Novices Hurdle:

Cousin Vinny is many peoples idea of the Irish banker, and last years Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Bumper performer (first horse to ever do the double) has shown a serious level of form this year, coming 3rd on his hurdling debut in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle behind stablemate Hurricane Fly before winning his maiden and a novice in good style, and looked to be travelling all over the smart Pandorama before unseating Patrick Mullins at the last in the Deloitte. There are however concerns about the jockey's lack of experience, and the seemingly flawed hurdling technique. Allied to this, is the fact that the horse didnt travel well across the Irish Sea, and Willie Mullins is quoted as being unhappy with the horses well being.
All of theses factors leed me to overlook Cousin Vinny at the forecast prices and look elsewhere.

Torphichen has shown smart form since arriving in England, and has a serious chance on his recent Sandown win, where he accounted for subsequent Grade 2 scorer Penchant. He is though, only a 4 year old, and they have a desperate record in the race. Only Hors La Loi III has won this race as a 4 year old, the mighty Binocular couldnt do it last year!

This leads me to Go Native. The Noel Meade 6 year old was travelling just as well as Hurricane Fly approaching the last in Leopardstowns Grade 1 Future Champions Novices Hurdle, but a mistake at the last halted his momentum but still finished a credible second to the potentially top class Willie Mullins inmate, who misses the race due to injury.

Ruby Walsh's mount Kempes could pose a threat, but may just need quicker ground so i'll stick with Go Native.

Go Native each way 10/1.

Arkle Chase:

Not a race I've a strong opinion on but I can't have Tatenen at the prices as he got 11lbs off Follow the Plan at Leoparsetown over Christmas and couldn't beat him.

I also think Calgary Bay hasn't beaten anything special this season, the trip is wrong, and I have suspicions he doesn't see out his races properly.

The same applies to Forpaddytheplaster, who wants better ground, has found one to good on numerous occasions at the top level. He also hasnt really found his proper trip and may just find another too good in this.

One who fits the stats, and was extremely impressive in Kemptons Wayward Lad Chase over Christmas is the French bred Original, who is a massive horse standing at 18.5 hands. He jumps and stays well, and also has a high cruuising speed. He has serious place claims and could surprise people and win the Arkle.

Original each way 16/1.

Champion Hurdle:

The chances of Binocular have been well documented in the run up to this, but at the forecast 6/4 I cant put my hard earned on a horse who hasn't won at the track, wont enjoy the soft ground and has only ever won in small fields. The terrible record of 5 year olds in this race still holds through despite Katchits win last year, and until another one or two go in, I cant back Binocular at the prices. On the plus side, he has looked very promising the season, and could defy the negatives and be the next Istabraq. As i said though, I'm happy to look elsewhere at 6/4.

The obvious one to oppose the favourite with is Celestial Halo, who has been the subject of very positive bulletins from Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. He won the Triumph Hurdle last year, and may possess the stamina to kick on up the hill and stay there. He boasts the best flat form, and is a terrific jumper. ALthough only a 5 year old, at the prices he represents cracking each way value at around the 8/1 mark.

The cavalry includes last years winner Katchit (needs to improve at least 20lbs on this seasons form), runner up Osana (already beaten by Celestial Halo this season), Sublimity(age and stamina concerns), Brave Inca (too old) and Punjabi (each way squeak) and the enigmatic Harchibald, but a couple against the field each way are last years Anglo-Irish champion novice Jered, and Sentry Duty, who won a couple of big handicaps this season, and may run into a place.
These are both quite ground dependent so hold fire if the rains come.

Celestial Halo each way 8/1

Cross Country Steeplechase:

There really isn't much point in looking away from Enda bolger who has farmed this race, with previous winners including the legendary Spot the Difference, Heads on the ground and Garde Champetre (who runs today).

Bolger has the top two in the market in L'Ami and Garde Champetre, and for biggish hitters would be well advised to dutch the two horses at a touch over evens.

The trainer though has expressed concerns over Garde Champetre carrying so much weight (11st12lbs), and either way, the classier of the two is former Gold Cup fourth L'Ami, who has the expertise of JT McNamara on board and represents the bet of the day at around 5/2.
He won the key trial at Punchestown last month at a canter and looks to be primed and ready to take this.

For anyone lookin for a big priced alternative, the Irish trained Jaspers Dream was 12 lengths behind L'Ami but has a 21lbs swing in the weights today. He could be worth a little each way saver at 50/1.

L'Ami 5/2 (nap)

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle:

With the defection of Whiteoak to the Champion, for me this looks to be a three horse race, between the smart Quevega who won very easily at Punchestown a few weeks ago, and has extremely smart French form behind Hurricane Fly. Willie Mullins is quoted as saying Quevega is his best chance of a winner this week, but she may just have to give way to the tough mare United, who was a Grade 1 winning novice, was fourth in the World Hurdle a couple of years ago and returned from injury to win two decent pots this year. She's reportedly as good as ever and will take a world of beating.
Nicky Hendersons mare Chomba Womba (3rd in this race last year) could rustle up the above two if returning to her early season form but has disappointed in her last couple of starts and is overlooked (hopefully not at my peril).

United 4/1.

If anyone fancies a bet in the William Hill Handicap chase (not recommended), I'd stump for Maljimar each way at around 16/1-he hosed up in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham last season and has been kept for this since his run in the Paddy Power Chase before Christmas.

Thats Day 1, hopefully there's a couple of winners for you.

For what its worth it's my least confident day of the week, so stick with it.
Marathons and sprints and all that...

Happy Punting.

Ian

On a Learning Curve: Ireland V Poland preview

2008-11-19T06:47:00.000-08:00

Make no mistake; this is not a meaningless November friendly international. Quite the opposite in fact. Giovanni Trappatoni puts his unbeaten record as Ireland manager on the line tonight against tricky opposition, but there is a lot more to be gained than just a win.

A lot has been made of the fact that the midfield axis of Darron Gibson and Glenn Whelan struggled for extended periods during the second half in the win against Cyprus. With Stephen Reid’s long term injury, this game provides a fresh opportunity for Gibson and Whelan to develop their partnership against a very decent Polish side.

The absence of Andy Reid may have irked a lot of people, but Trappatoni believes in a system that so far is yet to taste defeat, and who are we to question him. We know that words were exchanged between player and manager in Mainz, but if Trappatoni is to be believed, he doesn’t hold a grudge against the Sunderland man, and this game merely provides an opportunity to perfect his system.

Expectant father Richard Dunne returns from Manchester after what proved to be a ‘false alarm’ with his wife going into labour. He will take his place in the centre of defence. It may prove some respite for Dunne, who has endured a nightmarish few weeks in a Manchester City shirt. He has scored two own goals already this season and his bad patch culminated in a sending off against Tottenham.
While his form may have been ‘patchy’ for City, Dunne has been awesome in an Irish shirt, particularly against Cyprus, where he and Shay Given provided the heroics which kept us in touching distance of Italy at the top of Group 8. Although he would have been forgiven for staying with his pregnant wife in Manchester, Dunne showed again the qualities which endear him to Irish fans. Dunne is honoured to represent his country, takes pride in pulling on a green jersey, a trait which will hopefully someday rub off on his City team mate Stephen Ireland.

Ireland’s form at the weekend once again brought his self imposed exile into conversation, but as Liam Brady said on Monday “We have been to see the boy, we have asked him to come back, Do you want us to go over every week to ask him?” The majority are tired of the Ireland argument, it’s time to move on, there is a place for him in the squad if he wants it, but right now Ireland’s priorities lie elsewhere. Yet the same majority undoubtedly would love to see him back in green.

Shay Given will captain the team in his 91st international after Robbie Keane was forced to return to Liverpool for treatment on a shoulder injury. His place is taken by Hull City striker Caleb Folan, who will hope to provide a major selection headache for Trappatoni in his first start in a senior international. Folan impressed in a recent ‘B’ international and hopes to bring something a little different to the fold when he partners in form Reading striker Kevin Doyle.

Poland are not to be taken lightly though. They have an enviable recent qualification record which has seen qualify for the last two major tournaments, including when topping a group containing Portugal and an impressive Serbia. They currently occupy second spot in their World cup qualifying group and Coach Leo Beenhakker will be looking for his team to put up a spirited performance in front of a crowd that is sure to contain a large Polish presence.

Whatever the result tonight, Trappatoni will learn a lot about his Irish side, which hopefully offer plenty of food for thought, and further the confidence in the squad going into the spring internationals.

Oh Jaypurs-Dunphy's a really annoying sensationalist p***k

2008-11-05T14:28:00.000-08:00

I've taken it for years and years; "ah sure he's funny", but no more. Now I wouldn't be a fan of RTE's all round coverage of football but even while watching live on Sky or ITV (never TV3 mind) down the years I'd always flick back to listen to what Giles, Brady and the Dunph had to say about the nights fare.

While I have the utmost respect for the opinions of Johnny Giles, and Liam 'its a nonsense Bill...' Brady on all matters football, there's always been that grumpy little troll Dunphy, just itching to give his over the top, sensationalist take on the preceding proceedings.

It really took off in 1990 when he was scathing in his criticism of Jack Charltons Irish side during the World Cup, and has continued through two decades, having a pop at everyone he could. the likes of Graham Taylor, Terry Venables and Steve Staunton. "Spoofers" such as Hansen, Shearer and Lineker have been the source of Dunphy's ire. Jose Mourinho was labelled "poisonous", his once beloved Roy Keane got it in the Star last week.

But the one he really loves taking aim at, is the current "World's Best Player"...Cristiano Ronaldo. Those of you who know me know where my footballing allegiances lie. United are the team for me, as the chant goes, and I think the boy from Madeira is a fantastic footballer-not as good as Georgie (as Sir Bobby claims) but not too far off.

Eamo doesn't seem to agree however...he has labelled Ronaldo a 'brat', a 'cod', and a 'disgrace to football'. After the Champions League semi final last year he went to town on the kid, calling Ronaldo all the above names and more. He compared him unfavourably to Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington and Ruby Walsh, how he doesn't have an ounce of what they have, how we're all blinded by the hype!

Tonight, after United's draw with Celtic, Dunphy decided to be wholly unoriginal and go to town on Ronaldo in the exact same way as before. Who did he compare him with tonight? Wait for it...Tiger, Harrington, Ruby-and a new one for good measure; Lewis Hamilton. My Christ Eamon, change the bloody record.

No doubt there'll be a damning indictement in the Star tommorrow morning-it might even get a mention on the front page. Not where this man belongs, not even close.

I sat in the press room in Croke Park after the Cyprus game, when a room full of his colleagues laughed at Dunphy's post match analysis...at you Eamon, not with you...give it a bloody rest would you? It's become a shambles

Living beyond their means

2008-10-28T15:49:00.000-07:00

As a predominantly professional entity, the Eircom Premier league is coming to an end. In the current economic climate, it has become abundantly clear that clubs in the top tier cannot sustain themselves on a full-time basis.

The 2008 season has been one of turmoil off the pitch, with players throughout the country forced into massive wage cuts. Astonishingly, Bray Wanderers became the eighth club this season to hit financial difficulties this week, when announcing that players will take a cut of 40% of their wages.

Last year’s champions Drogheda United almost faced relegation, and with it certain extinction, after it emerged the club is currently saddled with debts of over €732,000 (€535,000 of which is owed to the Revenue Commissioners). The uncertainty surrounding the club led to the players threatening not to travel to an away fixture against Cork City, which in turn would have led to the club facing instant relegation. They have been placed under examinership.

The clubs problems surfaced when directors Vincent Hoey, Chris Byrne and Eugene O’Connor in essence took a gamble on the proposed building of a new stadium in Bryanstown, plans which were shelved due to an objection from the National Roads Authority, and with them went the cash advance promised to the club.

It also recently emerged that over seventy percent of players in the Eircom League are out of contract at the end of this season, a situation that is particularly worrying to professionals within the game, even those who are under contract next season. Drogheda United stalwart Graham Gartland admits his worry at his clubs current predicament. He said “Hopefully the club can stay afloat, it would be a terrible pity if it went under because of all the progress Drogheda have made in the past few years. I am under contract for next season but I have no idea what will happen now."

FAI Cup holders Cork City found themselves in a similar predicament to Drogheda earlier this season after they too underwent a period of examinership, due to running up debts of over €1.3million. Examiner Neil Hughes told players and staff that if the club was to survive, their positions were unsustainable, with those surviving the chop taking a 70% pay cut. Fortunately, hotelier and property developer Tom Coughlan has bailed the club out and are they are now debt free.

Coughlan has paid the outstanding money owed to the players following the 70% cuts but this is not the situation throughout the league. Cobh Ramblers had the audacity to ask players (some of whom are out of contract in November) to take out bank loans to the tune of €2000 each and give the money to the club in a move slammed as ‘farcical’ by players union boss Stephen McGuinness.

McGuinness, General Secretary of the PFAI, moved to reassure players that all outstanding wages will be paid to them come the end of the season. He said that “there are sanctions in place that state if a club owes outstanding monies to any of its players come November 30th, that club will not be awarded a licence to operate next season, so that’s the real copper-fastener that secures players will be paid.”

He went on to say that “until we bring in crowds and bring in sponsors that can sustain the wages for full time players, I think part-time is the way to go.”
He is not discouraged, however, by such a move, and remains highly optimistic for the future of the league, saying; “we will still have a vibrant league, it may not continue in its current guise, but the league is not going anywhere, that’s for sure.”

He admitted that although a return to part-time football would more than likely halt recent progress made by Irish clubs playing in European competitions, and that “we’ll lose the leagues top players…the Keith Faheys, Mark Quigleys and Shane Robinsons, if it means the league is more sustainable, and players are getting paid because of it, well then we’ll accept that.”

What way can clubs bring more fans to games? According to McGuinness, it should start with facilities. He compares the experience of attending an Eircom League game with that of a night at the dogs or a day at the races. He claimed that in the Eircom League “facilities are shocking, there’s no ground in Ireland for example that you can sit down for a meal, yet these facilities are readily available at the dogs or at the races. There’s a corporate element to our league that’s completely lost, we don’t have it. Clubs need to look at getting the grounds right and building from there.”

What is sure is that it will be a long way back for the Eircom League after this season; as we came extremely close to losing clubs in 2008, and even though Irish clubs had an outstanding record of eight wins and four draws from only twelve games in European competitions this year, maybe it was chasing the European dream which ultimately led to the demise of our bigger, more successful clubs…It was only a few short years ago that Shelbourne were mixing it with Deportivo in the champions League, they’ve seen themselves mired in the First Division since then, and all after over-extending themselves financially off the back of that European run.
As Stephen McGuinness puts it; “People said that Shels’ capitulation a couple of years ago was a seminal moment for the league, but this, to me, is a watershed for the league.”

Bohs future still uncertain

2008-10-21T12:50:00.000-07:00

The future of Bohemian FC was still in doubt yesterday as they face a further delay before they find out if they can proceed with the sale of their Dalymount Park stadium.

The Eircom League champions were due in the High Court yesterday but the case was adjourned until Tuesday November 4th. The case was due to settle the sale of the club’s home ground Dalymount Park, as the club has agreed a deal worth €60 million with property developer Liam Carroll’s Danninger Ltd. (including a proposed new stadium in Harristown, Co Dublin). They await a decision from the court on a previous deal involving Albion Properties before they can conclude the deal and move to a new stadium.

Albion Properties, owned by Pascal Conroy, claim they had an oral agreement with Bohemians for the purchase of certain lands at Dalymount, notably a tract of land at the shopping centre end of the ground. In their action brought against Mr. Conroy, Bohemians claimed that no such oral agreement for any sale was concluded.

Residing over the case, Mr. Justice Edwards said that he had had hoped for a judgement yesterday, and his decision “is at an advanced stage; however much has been made of the fact that an agreement between the club and Mr. Conroy has been entered into without ratification by the members of Bohemian Football Club."He said that he "understood the importance of the matter to both parties and he is anxious a judgement will be made by November 4th."

It ends a week of turmoil for the North Dublin club, which began triumphantly last Friday as they secured the Premier Division title with a win over rivals Drogheda United. On Thursday night a dissident group of the club’s members tabled a motion of “no confidence” in the board due to the “financial and overall mismanagement of the club.” The motion was defeated. Also in the courts today, former Bohs manager Sean Connor began proceedings against the club for alleged unfair dismissal.

The uncertainty surrounding the clubs future adds to a season of woe for the Eircom League. Amid growing economic uncertainty, big clubs such as Cork City and Drogheda United have been under examinership this season, with Cobh Ramblers boss Stephen Henderson also declaring his club “broke.”

It also recently emerged that over seventy percent of players in the Eircom League are out of contract at the end of this season, a situation that is particularly worrying to professionals within the game, even those who are under contract next season. Drogheda United stalwart Graham Gartland admits his worry at his clubs current predicament. He said “Hopefully the club can stay afloat, it would be a terrible pity if it went under because of all the progress Drogheda have made in the past few years. I am under contract for next season but I have no idea what will happen now."

Amid all of this uncertainty though, came the encouraging announcement yesterday morning that Cork City formally came out of examinership, and were taken over by Tom Coughlan. The club is now “debt free” according to manager Alan Matthews, and can concentrate on winning back-to-back FAI Cups and a Setanta Cup. It doesn’t take away from the fact that the league is on its knees, and there are trying times to come.

Whats our problem with Cyprus?

2008-10-16T14:36:00.000-07:00

At the end of the day it was the 3 points that mattered. Coupled with Bulgaria’s inability to win in Tblisi, these 3 points may prove crucial when all is said and done in Group 8. On the balance of it, we deserved the win over Cyprus, but only just. There was a sense of slight trepidation hanging in the North Dublin air after securing a tense 1-0 win. Why did it end up so difficult? Memories of leads lost against the likes of Israel came to mind mid way through the second half. What was happening?

We started brightly and from the moment Robbie Keane headed home from close range after 4 minutes, we were utterly dominant. Cyprus simply couldn’t deal with the guile and penetration of Damien Duff’s running. Duff was back to somewhere approaching his best, evident by his roaming inside and out, switching wings and befuddling the Cypriot full backs.
Aidan McGeady put in his best shift in an Irish shirt for some time. Penetrative and incisive, his all round play was excellent. All negative talk of Trapattoni’s gamble to start Darron Gibson alongside Glenn Whelan was beginning to evaporate.

Trap had claimed the quartet of Keane, Doyle, Duff and McGeady provided enough firepower to bury Cyprus, and at half time, the question was; who were we to question Il Gaffer?
But things changed at half time, and credit must go to Angelos Anastasiadis. He was forced to change his starting XI in the warm up when his best player was injured in the warm up, but by half time he had figured us out.

With a couple of quick changes the Cypriots quickly began to assert. The inexperience of Gibson and Whelan at the highest level really started to show, and for lengthy periods, it was Cyprus doing the probing. Every self respecting Irish football fan could see that a change was needed, and for me Whelan was the one for the chop. He was largely ineffective all night. His role in Trap’s team is to break down any of the oppositions forays into Irish territory…the Gattuso role. Win it back, and get to someone who can play a pass. Last night he was a yard off the pace. It was as if he had no trust in his own ability.

The game was crying out for the introduction of someone who did trust themselves. Someone with creativity, someone who would put his foot on the ball, slow things down and wrestle the initiative back from Cyprus. It’s clear who that someone is, but for whatever reason, Trapattonni can’t see the talents Andy Reid possesses.

It’s common knowledge now, that Reid and Trappatoni had words after the Georgia game in Mainz. Fair enough, that the manager just may not ‘fancy’ Reid, but sometimes the good of the team needs to come first, and Trappatoni’s stout refusal to even consider Reid is worrying.
It seems that even Liam Miller was ahead of Reid in the pecking order to play last night, even though Reid keeps him out of the side at Sunderland. For me it is extremely disheartening that our manager fails to see the talents of our most creative and intelligent midfielder, plumping instead for 2 young reserve team midfielders.

But let’s not stray from Trap’s objectives. The key to qualifying may well be to keep picking up home wins, and while we got away with it last night against a depleted Cyprus side, it’s only a matter of time before we’re found out. An Italian midfield will overpower and outclass a partnership of the likes of Whelan and Gibson, so here’s hoping it’s a case of “lesson learned, won’t be doing that again!!”

Too Much Too Soon

2008-10-14T16:53:00.000-07:00

“Our goal is to make this club one of the best, not just in England, but the world. To reach that goal, there is no limit....” Dr Sulaiman Al-Fahim September 1st 2008.

Money talks. Especially in football, and these days...especially in English football. The transfer of Brazilian star Robinho from Real Madrid to Manchester City, as opposed to Champions League runners up Chelsea is just one example of how money holds sway.

Chances are, before September 1, you will never have heard of Dr. Sulaiman Al-Fahim or Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Early that morning, City majority shareholder Thaksin Shinawatra signed a memorandum of understanding with the Abu Dhabi United group (ADUG). This would see the Arab company taking a majority stake in the football club and in doing so, shaking up European football.

Al-Fahim, the front man of the group, has promised to turn City into a top four club within three years, as well as promising to bring in a number of ‘galactico’ signings. They are dreaming of instant success, “A place in the Champions League is quite a jump from last season, but we will sit down with the manager, identify the players he would like, and bring the right players to the club. This season we would like to be better than last season, and we are eager for trophies next season”. Realistic goals???

ADUG join Roman Abramovich (Chelsea), Aston Villa’s Randy Lerner and the Glazer family at Manchester United among other foreign investors in the premier league. To date, the most successful transformation of a clubs footballing fortunes has come at Chelsea, where since acquiring the club in 2003, Abramovich has invested over £550m in an attempt to turn the Blues into one of the world’s best known clubs. They’ve won two domestic titles, an FA Cup, a League Cup and were the width of a post from lifting the prize the Russian billionaire so covets, the UEFA Champions League. Purely judged on Chelsea’s exploits over the past five years, one can understand the optimism among the blue half of Manchester.

But it’s not always rosy in the garden. When a super rich owner buys a football club he has extremely high expectations, and he’d like a return on his investment post haste. As if managing a football club isn’t hard enough. Owners have their own ideas on how to play the beautiful game, and have been known to interfere in player selection and the team’s tactics. This is evident at Chelsea. For all of the success, there have been four different managers during the Abramovich era, and this managerial merry go round is down to issues highlighted above...expectations too high, impatience, and above interference. Even The Special One only survived a month into his third season!!!

In fairness to such owners, it’s not all doom and gloom. At Aston Villa, there seems an understanding between the manager and the clubs hierarchy, which is similar to the situation at Manchester United. Neither Randy Lerner at Villa, nor the Glazers at United seem to meddle in team affairs, or attempt to sign their own players without consultation with the manager. These owners have identified that the manager they employ can be trusted with their club and can develop, progress and deliver success.

Reverting momentarily back to Man City, those with a propensity for gambling surely wouldn’t offer large odds on Mark Hughes remaining in a job come the end of next season (2010). This is a club trophy-less since 1976 (and haven’t been close since), they finished a mediocre 9th last season, and the new boss wants trophies next year!!! Hughes has already proven himself an above average manager at club and international level, but with Al-Fahim bandying about possible transfer targets such as Ronaldo (perma-tanned and Portuguese, not fat and Brazilian), Torres and Fabregas. How long will it be before they start seeking out a marquee name as manager?

This leads to another worrying and rather irksome development in modern football...the Director of Football. In recent days, Newcastle United has become a club in turmoil. Now up for sale, they are managerless, and the squad mediocre. Their delusional fan base has become incandescent with rage over the fact that billionaire owner Mike Ashley has ‘brought shame and ridicule on the club’. Now when I say delusional, I refer to the fact that said fans maintain that they are a ‘big club’. Statistics show this just isn’t the case. Newcastle haven’t won a major honour since 1955 and were last champions in 1927!

The shame the fans speak of was brought on by Dennis Wise’s appointment as the club’s Director of Football. Manager Kevin Keegan left the club blaming the management structure for his resignation stating that it left him with little or no influence over the clubs transfer policy. Keegan enjoys God-like status on Tyneside and news of his exit led to revolution against the board. Demonstrations in the city applied pressure on Ashley and banners labelling himself and Wise ‘Fattyboy’ and ‘Ratface’ were paraded around the stadium.

The problem is that top managers feel undermined by such Directors of Football. Martin O Neill turned an offer down from Spurs while he was at Celtic, and he insists he will never work under a Director of Football, “some directors of football have power without responsibility”. This is a view seemingly shared by Arsene Wenger, who has come out in support of Kevin Keegan.The silly thing about all of this Newcastle nonsense is, in his impassioned statement on the sale of Newcastle, embattled Ashley claimed he wanted to build like Arsenal, “Arsenal is the shining example in England of a sustainable business model”. Hmmm...Arsenal don’t have a Director of Football Mike!!!

Long term, what does the future hold for English football? Is it possible that big money takeovers, an overreliance on foreign imports and huge debts are in danger of destroying the game? It is the ordinary fans that clubs cannot afford to neglect. Watching a live game must remain an affordable prospect for supporters, and it would be an awful shame if an average family could not afford to attend games.

If the Abu Dhabi group are serious when they say they will stop at nothing in a bid to make City the biggest club in the world, and if the ‘shameless’ Mike Ashley can find a buyer for Newcastle, one who “can lavish the amount of money on the club the fans want”, and if the influx of foreign investment continues in the premier league (there are a number of investors hovering). Maybe, just maybe, one or two could gate crash the “Big Four’s” party. As football fans we can expect exciting times ahead...but at what cost?

Ireland Cyprus preview

2008-10-14T16:44:00.000-07:00

Revenge Mission

So International football is back in town. Gio Trapattoni kept his unbeaten record in an Irish dugout intact, with a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest at Dalymount Park last Thursday.

Now its all eyes on Croke Park this Wednesday as Cyprus roll into town. And boy do we owe Cyprus a hiding! The result in Nicosia this time 2 years ago was a real low point in Irish football...so what’s different this time around?

Well, the manager for starters...One gets the impression that there's no way we'd ship 5 goals to anyone under Trapattoni. There's also a renewed hunger with this batch of players. The mix of old heads, such as Dunne, Keane and Given combined with talent like Andy Keogh and the particularly exciting Caleb Folan has breathed a fresh impetus into this qualifying campaign. The big Hull man has played himself into Trapattoni's plans this season, particularly when showing strength and composure to fire Ireland into a first half lead on Thursday night.

Folan gives us something different to what we've had up front recently. He told me after Thursday’s game, "I tried to show what my game is all about, I think I bring a lot of passion to the team (not that the team lacks passion), but that’s what my game is all about...passion and hard work. There's talk of me staying on with the World Cup squad and I'm pleased with how it’s gone so far".

As am I. Qualification for South Africa is a serious possibility, and Folan may just prove to be the ace in Trapattoni's pack. With Italy and Bulgaria fighting out a stalemate on Saturday, there’s now a real opportunity to grab a hold of our group and press on from here. A decisive win over the Cypriots could see us top the group on Wednesday night. And with a couple of home games in the spring before we face Marcello Lippi’s men, it’s particularly important to secure the three points.

Not that this will be an easy task. Cyprus is a developing football nation, with club sides such as Anorthosis Famagusta picking up points in this season’s Champions League. The national side have already shaken up this group, particularly when it took a 91st minute winner for Italy to prevail in Larnaca. A missed penalty prevented them from taking all three points in Tblisi on Saturday, so it’s vital we see the Cypriots as a genuine threat.

Assistant manager Marco Tardelli yesterday admitted that Wednesday’s fixture is “very, very dangerous”, saying “Cyprus is a good team, with good players. We can’t forget they beat Ireland last year 5-2, and we drew 1-1 at home”. The threat is there for all to see, but if we have serious aspirations of qualification, ‘Operation Revenge’ must be successful. He spoke of the difference in the Irish mind frame under the current management “I think now we play Cyprus in a better position, because we have trust and confidence”.

Giovanni Trapattoni has no fresh injury worries ahead of Wednesday night, although Caleb Folan and Alex Bruce did sit out training over the weekend with slight knocks. There is no concern of them not being available. It is expected that the only changes Trapattoni will make will be the inclusion of the returning Damien Duff, and those enforced by the absence of Stephen Reid and Steve Finnan. John O’Shea will possibly slot in at right full, with Paul McShane partnering Richard Dunne at centre half. Again it appears Andy Reid will miss out despite his fine recent form for Sunderland, with Liam Miller the favourite to occupy the vacancy in midfield.

On Wednesday, the current crop of Irish internationals have the opportunity to somewhat banish the nightmares of that night in Nicosia, and in doing so; take our group by the scruff of the neck. Nothing but a win will do for the manager, the players, and the fans. It won’t be easy, but one expects there’s enough hurt still burning inside those who played in the 5-2 defeat to provide the springboard for a win. Even though that reverse is irrelevant with regard to this fixture, this game is more than just three points…It’s about revenge