Day 3:

2.05 The Pertemps Hurdle

Desperately hard race to pick a winner, but there is one that sticks out for me, Jenny Candlish's Barafundle.

This one has only once finished out of the frame in ten attempts and has been plotted for this race since a couple of quick runs in November. What is significant is that he came up against the devastatingly impressive Cleeve Hurdle winner Grands Crus in a Listed handicap hurdle. He was a ten-length second , but was 14 clear of a strung out field and was the only one to give Grands Crus a race.

A week later, he came out and beat another decent field before being put away for this race.
He is adaptable ground-wise, and is one of only three in the race who won last-time out...a major positive for the Pertemps!

Selection: Barafundle (ew) 11/1

2.40 The Ryanair Chase

The bet of the day for me runs in the Ryanair, in fact I think it's one of the bets of the whole week, Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.

Ever since his staying on effort to be third in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year, the Ryanair looked like it would be the ideal race for Murphy's stable star to break his festival duck.

The ground has also come right for him, and he really caught the eye when running into fourth behind Master Minded in the Victor Chandler Chase after being so badly hampered he was carried right across the track. Murphy was quoted as saying that it was the first time since his impressive win at Doncaster over 2 and a half miles in February 2010 that he was coming back to form.

He's trying this trip for the first time over fences but 2 miles looks the minimum for him these days and there is every chance he will improve for the step up.

His Festival form figures stand at an impressive 423, which includes a close second in the 2009 Arkle and a third in last year's Champion Chase. He is probably the classiest horse in a race that has cut up with the defection of Somersby to the Champion Chase and Riverside Theatre being injured.

The danger could be last year's winner Albertas Run, who boasts extremely good figures on good ground, but he has had a terrible prep this season and may just find Kalahari King too good.
At 5/1, he represents a knocking good bet to nothing each-way and barring a fall, there really shouldn't be three horses in front of him.

Selection: Kalahari King (ew) 5/1

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

I don't think anyone can argue that this - on paper - is a two horse race. Fair enough horses don't run on paper, but dual champion Big Buck's and Grands Crus look to be miles clear of the rest of the field.

Even going on stats and trends, there can only be two winners. The previous year's winner has returned four times in the past decade and their overall record stands at three wins and one second. Clearly, that speaks in the favour of Big Buck's, although he would be the first horse to win three consecutive staying hurdle crowns (Inglis Drever missed out in 2006 due to injury) if successful.

He's been off the track since winning the Long Walk Hurdle in December and that Newbury race has provided the winner four times in the past 20 years, although the Cleeve Hurdle, won by Grand Crus, has now usurped it as the best trial - three of the last four winners ran in the Cheltenham Grade 2 event.

The Irish have a desperate recent record, with no Irish winner in 15 years since Dorans Pride in 1996, which doesn't bode well for Willie Mullins' fancied pair Mourad and Fiveforthree.

Grand Crus is the new kid on the block, and put in the most visually impressive performance of the season in the Cleeve Hurdle, and you cant help but tip your cap to him as he has improved from a mark of 126 at the start of the season to 169 (just 5lbs below Big Buck's).

There is undoubtedly plenty of improvement left in him and he could well improve past Big Buck's here, as he's only had six starts so there should still be plenty to come.

The fact remains though, that Big Buck's has won ten out of ten since reverting to hurdles after a last fence fall in the 2008 Hennessy, and has only really once had a race, when Punchestown put it up to him in the 2009 renewal. There was a time where he'd hit flat spots and would come under pressure, but those days are long behind him and he does everything with ease and still these days.

A win here would see him go down as one of the best staying hurdlers EVER, and until he's beaten, I'm happy to keep backing him. The fact that Grands Crus is in the race makes him now a betting proposition, and at 11/10, I'm happy to have a crack.

Paddy Power have just offered a pretty tasty concession, however which may alter the plans...if your horse finishes second to Big Buck's they will refund your stake, Grands Crus and Mourad are now a lot more appealing. Still though...

Selection: Big Buck's 11/10

4.00 Byrne Group Plate

Another terribly tricky race to unravel, but there are one or two who fit a few trends. The first is Quartz de Thaix, who in the form of his life and is trained by a real festival shrewdy, Venetia Williams.

French breds have a fantastic record in this race (the opposite of the Irish, who haven't won since 1951) and his trainer has a great record in the race, winning it twice in the last four years.

Since going back over fences this season, he has been nothing but impressive, winning his two races by a combined distance of 22 lengths, including an impressive win at Newton Abbott just last Monday. Rated 145 over hurdles, he is only now starting to reach his potential over fences and can make a mockery of his current mark of 144.

He is sure to have had this race in mind all season and can run into a place at least.

Gordon Elliott came to the Cheltenham table yesterday with two winners and a place, and he has a real lively one here in the shape of Beautiful Sound.

Having spoken to the trainer during the week, it was hard not to hear the excitement in his voice when speaking about the possibility of Beautiful Sound sneaking in at the bottom of the weights at the Festival.

He has has his leg problems but is in great form at the moment according to the trainer, and will relish the quick underfoot conditions. He is extremely lightly raced, having only had the five runs, and was gambled into favouritism in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, only to be given a poor ride by Katie Walsh to finish ninth of 28 in heavy ground.

He reappeared at Fairyhouse a few weeks later to win well, jumping exceptionally out of ground again less than ideal and has since been put away in the hope of getting in off a light weight at the festival. It's not often Davy Russell sweats down to do 10st6lbs, which is a tip in itself.

With the form of the stable this week, this one could go off a lot shorter so get on early if you can, and hope to cheer home another Irish winner on Paddy's Day.

Selection: Quartz de Thaix (ew) 7/1 or Beautiful Sound 12/1

1.30 The National Hunt Chase

Day 2 kicks off with the 4-mile Novices' Chase, which for some is the worst race of the festival.

It can be very tricky so stakes should be kept low. One for me is Tim Vaughan's Beshabar, who was previously with Paul Nicholls before the Harry Findlay affair.

This giant horse was built for chasing yet was very progressive over hurdles, taking decent pots at Sandown and Ascot before the switch to Vaughan.

He was in the process of running a cracker when being brought down by Chicago Grey at Cheltenham in November and was freshened up and given time to get over that before jumping well and staying on stoutly recently at Doncaster to beat Cool Mission.

Rated 149 over hurdles, he is undoubtedly classy and may easily outrun his current Chase mark of 138. He has the scope to improve over fences and being from a classy family of stayers including Tidal Bay, he will do for me.

Selection: Beshabar (ew) 8/1

2.05 The Neptune Novices' Hurdle

The second Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at the festival is The Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle, run over 2 miles and 5 furlongs. Traditionally, this race has been won by top-class horses and the roll of honour includes Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and most recently Peddlers Cross.

This could be one for the Irish, with the best form on offer coming from the likes of Oscars Well, So Young and First Lieutenant. They will face some stiff home opposition from the likes of Bobs Worth and Minella Class, both from the Nicky Henderson stable, and this could be one of the races of the festival.

For me, this boils down to the big two of Oscars Well and So Young. Oscars Well couldn't have been any more impressive than on his last two starts, winning a Navan Grade 1 before landing the Deloitte in great style from Zaidpour, Hidden Universe and Shot from the Hip.

The form is without question in the book, and at the time it looked like a strong Grade 1, and being by Oscar, he should appreciate better ground...but the Deloitte form wasn't exactly franked yesterday by Zaidpour or Hidden Universe in the Supreme.

I may regret this but I'm going to go against him for the in-form Willie Mullins's So Young. This one hasn't had the gun put to his head at the highest level yet but it is hard not to have been impressed by the way he has one on both starts over hurdles.

The form itself was boosted when Leopardstown runner up Harpsy Cord hacked up at the weekend, and Paul Townend is rumoured to have said that So Young was better than Hurricane Fly after a recent schooling session. High Praise indeed! Add that to the fact that Mullins has a brilliant record in the race as evidenced by recent wins for Mikhael d'Haguenet and Fiveforthree.

He has been extremely well backed all week so confidence is clearly high, and with Mullins landing a double yesterday who are we to doubt the stable's form.

Selection: So Young 5/2

2.40 The RSA Chase

Tough renewal this year, despite the presence of warm favourite Time for Rupert. He is many people's idea of a good thing but before steaming in, there are a few negatives that people seem to be missing.

Firstly, following a setback that forced him out of his prep-race, you will have to go back to 1962 to find the last winner of this race that spent longer off the track.

Secondly, that setback has meant he enters the race off the back of just two chase starts unlike the last 11 winners and thirdly, no RSA winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 20 years.

He may have the class to overcome this but at the prices I can't reccommend him.

There are a few in opposition who interest me. The first is the Gordon Elliott-trained Jessies Dream, who won the Drinmore at Fairyhouse in November with dual Grade 1 winner Realt Dubh a distance back in second.

Elliott is sure to have a handle on Time for Rupert’s ability through Jessies Dream’s stablemate Chicago Grey, who was second to Time for Rupert at Cheltenham. It is no secret that Elliott regards Jessies Dream as a superior horse to Chicago Grey.

One for those who like a bet at big prices is a horse who scored on Trials Day at Cheltenham last month, The Giant Bolster. Not too far behind Peddlers Cross in last year’s Neptune, The Giant Bolster has proved to be an excellent jumper this season and he will thrive on the RSA trip. It will be no surprise to his connections if he were to run a massive race.

The one who could beat them all however, is Donald McCain's Wymott. Impressive on his three starts over fences with his bold jumping and front running style, he should avoid any trouble in what is traditionally an error-strewn race.

Never out of the first two over jumps, Wymott showed he had class in abundance when winning a Grade 2 as a novice hurdler, beating today's opponent Wayward Prince, and has taken to fences brilliantly.

Adaptable ground-wise, Wymott could go off in front and not see another rival. If he does, I cant see more than two going past him and he is a knocking each-way bet.

Selection: Wymott ew 10/1

Alternative: The Giant Bolster ew 20/1

3.20 The Queen Mother Champion Chase

FOR many National Hunt enthusiasts, The Queen Mother Champion Chase is the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival.

There is something about the fastest chasers in the game going ‘lickety split’ for two miles over 12 fences that gets the heart beating that little extra bit quicker. In short, it’s what jumps racing is all about.

Given the speed at which the runners travel, jumping is more at a premium in this race than in perhaps any other that is run at the Festival. Even the slightest mistake can cost lengths, as the pace is unrelenting from start to finish.

It takes a special kind of horse to be the Champion Chaser, and there are a couple of special horses lining up for this year’s renewal. Where better to start then, than the reigning champ, Big Zeb?

Prior to last season, Big Zeb was a mercurial talent. It was clear he had a serious engine, but could never put in that clean round of jumping that would propel him to the very highest level.

Going into this race last year, he was a quietly fancied 10/1 shot, travelled beautifully and jumped impeccably to beat Forpadytheplaster, with Master Minded a disappointing fourth.

This season, there hasn’t even been a hint of a jumping mistake, and Big Zeb has looked impressive on all of his starts, even including when beaten in the Tied Cottage by Willie Mullins’ Golden Silver in unsuitably heavy ground, just tying up on the run-in having travelled imperiously.

There are arguments that Golden Silver may have improved past Big Zeb judging on that piece of form, but again, the difference between the two horses is that Golden Silver relishes a slog, which is exactly what he got at Punchestown, whereas on a better surface it is clear that Big Zeb is the classier of the two (in their careers they have met five times, Big Zeb has won four).

There are a few other potential flies in the ointment, most notably last year’s Arkle winner Sizing Europe - who hasn’t had a traditional preparation for a Champion Chase - and Woolcombe Folly, who put in an impressive weight carrying performance to score in a quick time at Cheltenham on Tingle Creek Day.

Both are taken seriously, but the main threat to Big Zeb’s crown has got to be twice winner and long-time antepost favourite, Master Minded.

Paul Nicholls’ eight-year-old has been nothing but impressive this season having undergone a wind operation in the summer, and looked back to his imperious best when winning the Tingle Creek at Cheltenham.

He did, however, look vulnerable at Ascot when he just held on from the fast-finishing Somersby by a nose. Somersby lines up in opposition again despite the fact that he constantly gives the impression that he would improve for a step up in trip.

Regardless, Tony McCoy (deputising for the injured Ruby Walsh) blamed himself for Somersby getting so close to Master Minded at Ascot, saying he gave the horse a “horlicks” of a ride, and that Master Minded won despite him.

He has been there and done it in the Champion Chase, is the highest rated horse in the field, and Nicholls is quoted as saying Master Minded is his best chance of a winner this year… so if he’s truly back to his best he will take a world of beating. But the same was said last year.

For me, it boils down to Big Zeb and Master Minded, and not just because form or ratings. Those who follow trends and statistics will have noted that between the two, they both tick most of the boxes required to win a Champion Chase.

Tingle Creek form is a massive positive, as 8 of the last 11 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase in the same season. Master Minded won it this season and perhaps significantly, won it en route to both of his previous wins in this race.

26 of the last 29 winners started at single-figure odds, and 10 of the last 12 winners started no bigger than 5/1, a stat which brings both into the equation.

Irish-trained horses have a great record, as does the previous year’s Arkle winner, which also brings the talented Sizing Europe into the equation.

For me, though, whoever can knock the champ off his perch will be the one being cheered back to the winners enclosure, and I can see a beaming Barry Geraghty - draped in a tricolour - celebrating back-to-back wins on Big Zeb.

Selection: Big Zeb 3/1

4.00 The Coral Cup

A typically strong renewal, in which three horses stick out.

The first is the wily veteran Arcalis. The Howard Johnson-trained 11-year-old always has reserved his best form for this venue.

A former Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner, he surprised many observers with his runs towards the latter part of last season. He was a strong finishing second in the County Hurdle and followed up with two solid efforts in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and also the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock.

He shaped on those occasions as if finding two miles a bit sharp nowadays and the extra distance in the Coral Cup should be a big help to him. Not far off Big buck's earlier this season and looks each way value at a massive price.

The second is Tiger O'Toole. Winner of a really decent Grade 2 Handicap Hurdle at Ascot already this season, he brings arguably the best form to the race beating reopposing Grade 1 juvenile winner Walkon by half a length.

Hold-up horses fared well yesterday which will suit Tiger O'Toole and the ground will hold no fears. The fact that he has had a break since his last (winning) run is a major plus and he again looks overpriced.

The main pick for me though is Willie Mullins' second string, Ballyhaunis, ridden by Paul Townend.

Always highly regarded, this lightly raced novice has shown a decent level of form on the flat and has done nothing wrong over hurdles, winning on good and soft ground, before a valiant 2 length second to subsequent dual winner Hidden Cyclone.

With the stable in the form it's in, I can see money coming for Ballyhaunis and he may not go off at his current 16/1.

Selection: Ballyhaunis (ew) 16/1

Alternatives: Arcalis or Tiger O'Toole, both 25/1

5.15 The Weatherbys Champion Bumper

The raiding party doesn't appear as strong as in recent years, but I'm still confident we can land this one, and there are two that stick out with great chances.

Colm Murphy's Raise the Beat is the first. After showing little on his debut on heavy ground, Raise the Beat was a completely different prospect on his two subsequent starts, quickening well on both occasions to score impressively on faster ground, which he will have today.

He has been the talking bumper horse of the preview night circuit and can hopefully make this a double for Murphy.

It must be noted that the trainer doesn't send horses to Cheltenham who don't have chances (see Brave Inca, Big Zeb, Zaarito) and with his 15 Festival runners, Murphy has only been outside the places twice. Sit up and take note!

The alternative to Raise the Beat is Philip Rothwell's Divine Rhapsody, who won the Punchestown Goffs Land Rover Bumper last April and was immediately targetted at this race.

The second, third, fourth, and fifth all came out and won races after being beaten by Divine Rhapsody, and at a decent 12/1 he makes plenty of alternative appeal.

Selection: Raise the Beat ew 10/1

Alternative: Divine Rhapsody ew 12/1

Cheltenham 2011, Day 1
1.30 The Supreme Novices' Hurdle
THOSE who have made the trip to The Cheltenham Festival will tell you. There is nothing that compares with the roar that goes up at 1.30 on the first day as the runners go charging down towards the first in The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
It is what jumps fans have been waiting for for the past 361 days. That feeling of emptiness has gone. For the next four days, they are in racing Mecca, among their own kind, enjoying a veritable banquet of top-class racing, revelry and the battle with the bookies. Cheltenham is back!
That joyous feeling lasts the guts of approximately 30 seconds, because after that initial surge of excitement, it’s all about who you’ve backed in The Supreme, where it’s positioned, how’s it jumping?

Last year, Dunguib carried the moniker of the Irish banker, and those who steamed in trying to get off to a flyer had their fingers well and truly burned as he could only finish third. He was so good the year before in the bumper and had been great on home soil all season.
Hadn’t we seen this before? The name Cousin Vinny springs to mind. And it’s happening again this season. Cue Card hacked up in the bumper last year and has been ultra-impressive when running in novice company this year, only tasting defeat to Champion Hurdle hopeful Menorah.
His trainer Colin Tizzard maintains Cue Card was undercooked for that defeat, and to his credit, Menorah is a really classy sort. He is a worthy favourite for the opener on his bumper and novice hurdle form, but there a couple of negatives...12 of the last 14 winners had won on their last start (which is something Cue Card didn't do (he was beaten by Menorah). As well as this, the last 11 winners ran in the previous 45 days, which again is something Cue Card hasn't done, so at around the 2/1 mark, punters may be tempted to look elsewhere, but where exactly?

Paul Nicholls’ Al Ferof chased home Cue Card in last year’s bumper and may offer most resistance again. He won the ill-fated race at Newbury at a canter and the same colours have run well with similar types Noland and Granit Jack in recent years.
He needs to improve, but has the assistance of one Ruby Walsh, and a tasty enough price, he could run well.

Another for the shortlist against Cue Card is Nicky Henderson's Spirit Son. The pick of Barry Geraghty has been nothing but impressive on all of his starts to date, doing everything that has been asked of him.
Stats fans (like me) will note that he ticks a lot of boxes, as he has only ran twice over hurdles, won last time out and has had a recent run. He must go close.

Selection: Al Ferof (ew) 10/1
Alternative: Spirit Son 11/2

2.05 The Arkle Chase

This year’s Arkle is wide open, and while the race has a habit of being won the form horse of its particular season, it is difficult to pick one horse that really stands head and shoulders above the rest.

The four horses that do stand out in this year’s renewal above the field - Finian’s Rainbow, Ghizao, Realt Dubh and Medermit – and all have a few little doubts surrounding them, so it will be the one who puts it all together on the day who will get their head in front.

Nicky Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow has been towards the head of the market since impressing on his fencing debut, but blotted his copybook when making a series of errors when winning a weak Kingmaker at Warwick on his last start, and may be found out by the hustle and bustle of an Arkle.

Ghizao hasn’t done much wrong over fences this season, and since a decent second to Kilmurry at Cheltenham in October, he has impressed on both starts since, winning a Grade 2 over Arkle course and distance before going in again at Newbury.

He wasn’t rated as high as some of these over hurdles, however, and may just find one too classy on the day.

Realt Dubh goes to The Arkle as Ireland’s biggest hope. He has won two Grade 1s this winter, including the Irish equivalent of this, and his ability to stay a bit further may be an advantage, as in recent years this has gone to horses with plenty of stamina.

Again there is just a doubt that he might want ground conditions to be a little more testing than he is likely to encounter on the first day of the festival, but is one for the shortlist nonetheless.

For me, the likeliest winner is Alan King’s classy hurdler Medermit. Rated 158 over flights, Medermit was unlucky not to have won a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle two years ago when badly hampered at the last, and has arguably the best form over fences this season.

He showed he has the required stamina if needed when beating a classy field over 2 and a half miles at Sandown last month, travelling and jumping superbly before battling on up the hill to hold on from the very capable Captain Chris. King is on record saying Medermit is his best chance of success at The Festival this year, which bodes well, as the trainer has a great record in the race.

Selection: Medermit 3/1

2.40 The Spinal Research Handicap Chase

The old William Hill, one of those races that some punters love to get stuck right into.
This race can be tricky to find the winner, but there a few form trends that have served us well in the past, and Ogee ran into a place last year for this blog... so we'll stick to the same formula.

Having gone through the race, one horse jumps off the page at me, Nick Williams' Reve de Sivola.
Winner of two Grade 1 novice hurdles last season and second behind Champion Hurdle fancy Peddlers Cross in The Neptune, I think it's fair to say we haven't quite seen the best of Reve de Sivola over fences yet, and I put that down to him running over trips short of his best.
This stout stayer, in my opinion is crying out for 3 miles, as it will give him that little bit more time to find his rhythm.
He is officially rated 140 (runners rated less than 143 have a great record in the race) as opposed to his 148 over hurdles, so there is plenty more to come in this sphere.
The fact that he is a novice is also a trends plus, as is the fact that he has placed at The Festival before.
For me he rates a fantastic bet at around the 10/1 mark.

Selection: Reve de Sivola (ew) 10/1

3.20 The Champion Hurdle

What a shame that favourite Binocular misses out, but this is still a top class renewal where the winner could really come from anywhere.

New favourite Menorah is the obvious starting point, and has rock-solid claims. Last Season's Supreme Novice Hurdler has done nothing but improve this year, taking the Greatwood off top weight over course and distance before putting top novice Cue Card firmly in his place in the Boylesports International (again over C&D).
He ticks a lot of boxes, but there are a couple of glaring negatives, which lead me to oppose him.
Given that the last 16 winners ran during the same calendar year (the last two Champion Hurdle favourites failed on this stat and were beaten), it goes down as a negative that Menorah has been off the course since Mid-December. A second negative Menorah must overcome is that 40 years have passed since the reigning Supreme winner has won the Champion Hurdle.
Enough for me to look elsewhere.

A trend I like is the prep race. The Fighting Fifth, Kingwell and Leopardstown's Grade 1's have always produced strong runners, and this year may be no different.
The last three Champion Hurdlers contested the Fighting Fifth, in which Peddlers Cross had Binocular back in third.
As winner of the Neptune last year, the unbeaten Peddlers Cross will have plenty of fans, particularly as winners of that race include subsequent Champion Hurdlers Istabraq and Hardy Eustace. I can see him storming up the hill to be a gallant second.
Also, the Kingwell Hurdle must be respected as that has highlighted two of the last three winners (and five since 1990). On that basis Mille Chief would have a chance.

The one who I reckon they all have to beat is Willie Mullins' stable star Hurricane Fly.
He won both of the leading Irish Grade 1 guides at Leopardstown this season that have highlighted four and three winners in the last decade respectively.
He is not without negatives of his own. He is sired by Montjeu, who has never sired a Festival winner and he has never ran at the course...both are negatives, although a seven-time Grade 1 winning Montjeu has run here.

He is without question the classy one in the race, having racked up an incredible SEVEN Grade 1s on the bounce, and I'm keeping everything crossed that he shows that devastating turn of foot after the last to storm up the hill with Peddlers Cross a fast-finishing second.
Selection: Hurricane Fly 4/1

4.00 The Cross Country Chase
No bet for me, if you really wanted a bet, I would recommend Another Jewel or Majimar each way.

4.40 David Nicholson Mare's Hurdle

One word, Quevega
Plain and simple, Quevega is the best horse in the race, which has no strenght in depth to it. For me, she rates as the best bet of the week, even at around the even money mark.
Put it this way, she has won the last two renewals by a combined distance of 19 lengths and since then has won the 3 mile Grade 1 World Series Hurdle at Punchestown from Bensalem, Mourad, Powerstation, Karabak, Jessies Dream, i could go on.
It's that piece of form that stands out for me above anything else...there is no horse in this race that could do what Quevega did to that field.
She escapes a Grade 1 penalty for that win, which enhances her chances, simply she is the Nap of the meeting for me...famous last words???

Selection Quevega: Evens

5.15 The Centenary Novices Handicap Chase

A wide open handicap to finish the day, and there are a whole host of runners who we can make arguments for. It would probably be best to keep the powder dry for Wednesday, but depending on how the day has gone, you may be tempted to have a go at the 'lucky last'.

If i was pushed, I'd bring it down to three horses, Definity, Tullamore Dew and Glenstal Abbey.

Tullamore Dew would have had this race as his target since he won a bonus race at Plummers in January, and if he wins here he will receive an extra 60,000 pound.
He is without doubt well-handicapped (139) on his second to Arkle favourite Medermit (now rated 155) and will undoubtedly go off shorter than his current 9/1 if Medermit can land The Arkle at 2.05.
He has a few things going for him in the fact that he was placed in last year's Coral Cup, which shows he acts around Cheltenham, and that he loves good ground. He will be hard to beat.

If there is one who is better handicapped, it could be Paul Nicholls' Definity, who looks to have been let in lightly off a mark of 136. A useful hurdler (rated 149), he has improved with racing over fences, getting off the mark at Fontwell on his penultimate start, before running Bakbenscher close at Exeter. He's a similar type to the 135-rated Chapoturgeon, Nicholls' only previous winner in 2009.

Glenstal Abbey is one who could outrun his 33/1 price and sneak into a place, or perhaps more.
He has done all of his winning on good ground and was 3rd in a Grade 3 behind Beau Michael. He has plenty of scope for improvement, as he was always thought of as a promising chaser. He is rated to win the race on a mark of 135 and had a perfect pipe opener last month in a handicap hurdle behind Peak Raider. I have a feeling he has been plotted for the race and may go off shorter than 33/1.

Selection: Definity 8/1
Alternative: Glenstal Abbey (ew) 33/1

Happy punting folks.

Gold Cup Day

Another cracking day on Thursday with Albertas Run coming in and a 1-2 in the World Hurdle earning us a nice few quid going into the final day.

JCB Triumph Hurdle

The Triumph is historically a tricky affair, but since the inception of the Fred Winter on Wednesday, the class has risen to the top and this has gone to fancied runners over the last few years.

Since the introduction of the Fred Winter, four of the five winners won last time out, were rated 80+ on the Flat and contested races over 1m4f+, had won at least twice over hurdles and started in the first four in the betting.

Runners who have had a final prep run in February have won 15 of the last 17 renewals and the Adonis Hurdle has produced the most runners as a prep race.

The one who ticks all of the boxes is Edward O'Grady's Alaivan. The market leader was a head away from winning a Group 3 on the Flat before winning a Listed race and running to a mark of 106.

He hacked up on hurdling debut before pulling too hard and having too much use made of him at Leopardstown when beaten by Carlito Brigante. That rival will give him plenty to do tomorrow, but Alaivan got right back on track when bolting up again last month in a Grade 2. The fast pace of the Triumph will suit, and there should be no problems settling him.

He is by far the classiest horse in the race and I personally am hoping he turns this into a procession.

Of the others, Carlito Brigante has been impressive on his last two starts, including when trouncing Alaivan, but horses rated so lowly on the flat dont generally win Triumphs, and I have a feeling he may make a three-miler in time.

Willie Mullins runs Secant Star, who has been very impressive to date. He had the race at his mercy when falling on debut and hacked up on his next start. The time that day was very slow, and although visually impessive, im not sure about the strength of the race.

Soldatino could be the one to trouble Alaivan, Nicky Henderson has his team in top form and this one bolted up in the Adonis at Kempton on his only British start. His lack of experience is a worry and might find the hustle and bustle of the Triumph a bit much for him at this stage of his career.

Selection: Alaivan @ 9/2
Alternative:Secant Star

Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle

The Cavalry Charge is tricky to win but Ive whittled it down to two against the field. Five year-olds rated between 128-135 have won 3 of the last five ruunings of the County, and five year olds in general have won 7 of the last 11.

Battle hardened horses have a good record, and its favourable to have plenty of running done this season. The MCR hurdle and Totesport Trophy are the key guide races.

The two to concentrate on here are Tarkari and Oldrick. Both tick a lot of the boxes and have nice racing weights. Oldrick was fifth behind Supreme runner up Get Me Out of Here in the Totesport before an impressive second to the progressive Qaspal in the Imperial Cup. He is officially 9lbs well in on the handicap, and has a lovely racing weight. If he can continue progressing he'll go very close.

Willie Mullins' Tarkari has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is sure to go well of a mark of 129. He was fourth in the MCR before winning well at Leopardstown at the end of February. As a five year old rate 129 who has run well in the MCR and is still progressing he represents great value at 16/1.

Selection: Tarkari (ew 16/1) and Oldrick (ew @ 14/1)

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

The three-mile novices hurdle is interesting in the fact that it sees a potential superstar run in the shape of Tell Massini. This beast has been nothing but impressive in his three starts to date at distances up to 3 miles. Although he took the Hyde Novices hurdle here (impressively) his form has all come on soft ground and he mightn't relish the quicker underfoot conditions. He has been mighty impressive all the same.

Like Tell Massini, Restless Harry has winning course form and he will make them all go some. Robin Dickin is quoted as saying its the best horse he's sat on in his 40 years involved with the sport, so he will obviously fancy his chances, but also like Tell Massini, his best form is on slower ground and could be just tapped for toe.

It really is wide open and the best bet from the home team could be Alan King's The Betchworth Kid. Good enough to reach the frame in the Goodwood Cup on the flat, he has been crying out for a step up in trip and will love the quicker ground. He will be doing all his best work at the end and has a chance of reaching the frame. His trainers form is a worry however.

Willie Mullins runs Quel Esprit after his fall on Wednesday, but that is not exactly ideal preparation (although he does look suited by the step up in trip. Again, the quick ground wont be to his liking.

The one for me who looks a huge price is Shinrock Paddy. Paul Nolan's charge has only lost once and that was in the Champion Bumper to the mighty Dunguib last season. He absolutely hacked up in the Grade 1 Barry and Sandra Kelly and looks certain to improve for a step up to three miles. He has been kept nice and fresh for the race and is - for me - overpriced at 9/1.

Selection: Shinrock Paddy (ew @ 9/1)
Alternative: Tell Massini @ 5/1

The Gold Cup

Kauto, Kauto, Kauto!!!!
Cant be beaten on his King George form. He's the best chaser around, Imperial Commander may run him close, but cant see Kauto beaten...For me, it really is as simple as that. No point hanging around talking about it, i feel that strongly. He's not a great price, so maybe Imperial Commander to win without Kauto, or even Tricky Trickster could run into a place. Anything close to evens is buying money in my opinion. Barring a fall, nothing should trouble him on his way to a hat-trick of wins and a staggering 14th Grade 1.

Selection: King Kauto

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle

With just the one running of this there aren't exactly trends to go by so its all about the form. The one for me is Willie Mullins' C'est Ca. His staying on third in the MCR is very decent form, and if he stays the extra half mile he's a major player With the best jockey in the race Alain Cawley on top, he is sure to run a big race.

It's possible that he is chucked in here, as he was beginning to become a really decent juvenile. He was brought down in the Grade 1 juvenile at Punchestown in 08 and its likely he is just coming back to himself after two good runs following his injury. A mark of 131 and a weight of 11st4lbs may not be enough to stop him.

Selection: C'est Ca (ew @ 9/1)

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap

Nicky Henderson loves to win this race in honour of his father and he takes aim at this again. You're the Top looks his first string with Barry Geraghty booked for the ride. He has a beautiful racing weight of 10st11lbs and novices have a great record. He can round off the week in style.

Selection: You're the Top (ew @ 10/1)

And thats it, its been emotional

Ryanair Chase

Albertas Run sticks out to me as being overpriced in a wide open renewal of the Ryanair. Jonjo O Neill's star has been mixing it in top top company for years now, and i have the feeling that intermediate trips and good ground are exactly what Albertas Run needs these days.

As Ive said all week, previous Festival form is a must have, and Albertas Run has won an RSA Chase around hear a couple of years ago. He comes out on top in the ratings as well, by a whopping 7lbs. Having beaten a host of this field already a couple of times this season, he is great value at 16/1.

The top two are worthy favourites though, especially considering the fact that Paul Nicholls rates Poquelin better than his two previous Ryanair winners Taranis and Thisthatandtother. Having been beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he routed his rivals in the Boylesports on better ground, and comes here with every chance.

Tranquil Sea is the one horse who has beaten Poquelin this season, and has look in top form all season. Following that win in the Paddy Power, he went down fighting to Golden Silver over an inadequate 2 miles, but was back to his best when hosing up last month in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown.

The worry for this Grade 1 winning hurdler is the drying ground, as he has shown his best form with a bit of ease. It wouldnt be enough to put me off though and he is a viable alternative.


Selection: Albertas Run (ew @ 16/1)
Alternative: Tranquil Sea (ew @ 11/2)


Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The big one is fairly straightforward.

If Big Buck's runs to all known form, he wins, its that simple. He is a short price, and a lot of fingers have been burned by hotpots Dunguib and Master Minded, but those two had a lot more running against them than Big Buck's.

He has his quirks and hits flat spots, but anything around evens represents value!! It was a high class renewal he won last year, beating Punchestowns , Kasbah Bliss and the likes. Since reverting to timber after his last fence blunder in the Hennessey a couple of years ago, and he has proven himself to be the undisputed king of the staying hurdlers.

If you're looking for a bit of each way value at a massive price, Time for Rupert could run into a place...he's essentially a staying chaser but has enjoyed tremendous success of hurdles, including over C & D in December and when running second behind the rejuvinated Tidal Bay in the Cleeve Hurdle.


Selection: Big Buck's @ best price-5/6 currently
Alternative: Time for Rupert (ew @ 22/1)

The two races to finish the card are extremely tricky affairs.

In The Byrne Group Festival Plate Handicap Chase is extremely tricky, but one against the field i like is Ferdy Murphy's Watch My Back. With a clear round of jumping, Watch My Back should go very close in this. He's a progressive type who has won 3 of his 6 completed starts and has been kept for this since bolting up from the very decent Battlecry in December.

Ferdy Murphy has a great record at the Festival and had a winner yesterday when Poker de Sivola won the 4 miler. He's adept at readying one for the Festival and Watch my Back is a confident choice.

Selection: Watch my Back (ew @8/1)

A great Day 2 sets us up nicely for the rest of the week, and there's a couple of tasty ones today to get our teeth into. Thursday has long been the toughest day of the festival, and we all remember Black Thursday last year. This year will hopefully be a lot different tho.


Jewson Novices Handicap Chase

I fancy two in this, and having backed one antepost, ill be having a crack at the other today...and that one is Nicanor. The only horse to beat Denman over hurdles (here a few years ago in what is now called the Neptune), Noel Meades beast has taken a while to come to hand over fences.

To his credit he has never been seen to his best effect as he has been running on ground much softer than ideal. Even so, the form stacks up strongly in a race of todays nature.

Second to An Cathaoir Mor three runs ago, that one duly went on to win a Grade 1, his second to Kempes also reads well as he went onto Grade 2 success, and Nicanor slammed a useful Deal Done on his last outing, form which looks very good now. In short, he rates massive each way value.

The one ive backed antepost is Hey Big Spender. Colin tizzard took the bumper yesterday, which is a plus, and Hey Big spender has got winning Course and Distance form, jumping great in the process. I think that they have a potential superstar on their hands in Hey Big Spender, and at 9 or 10/1 he could be still too big a price.

Granted, some of these were rated higher over hurdles, but there is plenty of improvement in Hey Big Spender and he has done nothing wrong over fences so far

Selection Nicanor (ew @ 14/1)
Alternative: Hey Big Spender (ew @ 10/1)


Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

A very tough race to win, a top handicap hurdle. The one for me is Tom Taaffe's Smoking Aces. Taaffe seemed bullish about him at a recent preview night, and its been on my radar for a while now.

He gets in here on a lenient mark, and has just 10st6lbs to carry. He has been running great in Ireland, and stayed on stoutly to win last time out, beating decent horses in the process.

With a step up in trip sure to suit and first time cheekpieces to keep his mind on the job, this is a great opportunity for JP McManus to get back in the winners enclosure.

The trainer/jockey combination were successful in last years Coral Cup with Ninetieth Minute and he still sticks out at 10/1.

Selection: Smoking Aces (ew @ 10/1)

more to follow...

Well Tuesday didn't exactly go to plan, but we'll crack on regardless, and hopefully pick up a few winners on Champion Chase day.


National Hunt Chase

Wednesday kicks off with The National Hunt Chase over 4 miles for amateur riders and the one who sticks out for me in the marathon is Nigel Twiston Davies' Petitfour. As a former Grade 1 winner over hurdles he represents decent each way value at 12/1 as he wants every inch of a trip and any jumping doubts are offset by the fact that the trainer has put his son up for the ride.

It's a wide open race and the dangers include Massasoit and Synchronised, especially the latter, whose trainer has a particularly good record in this race. It's a heat to keep stakes small however, so a little few quid on Petitfour should give you a run for your money. He has been running in better company for years now and this represents an opportunity to get back in the winners enclosure.

Selection: Petitfour ew @ 12/1

Neptune Novices' Hurdle

The Neptune is a great chance for Ruby to bag his second winner of the the meeting with the Willie Mullins trained Quel Esprit.

4th in the Bumper behind Dunguib last season, he looked a right good horse early in the season before being beaten by a good horse in Coole River (who has gone in again since), and if the vibes coming out of the Mullins yard are to be believed, Quel Esprit could go right to the top. Mullins has a fantastic record in this race, and has taken the last two renewals. The money has come in recent weeks and he still rates a good bet at 4/1.

The obvious danger is Rite of Passage, who finished a place ahead of Quel Esprit in the Bumper last season and has been nothing but impressive since. A runaway winner of the November handicap at Leopardstown, he won his maiden over hurdles well including beat a horse rated 144 with disdain last time. I really couldn't put anyone off Rite of Passage but Dermot Weld has expressed his concerns over the horses inexperience in big fields over hurdles and at 3/1 he represents no value to me.

Donald McCain's Peddlers Cross may give the selection the most to do-he has been nothing but impressive to date, including when bolting up over two miles in a Grade 2 already this season. He is bred to stay and has won a point-to-point so he may have that special mix of speed and stamina, rating him massive value at around the 8/1 mark.

Selection: Quel Esprit @ 4/1
Alternative: Peddlers Cross @ 8/1 (ew)

RSA Chase

The RSA Chase is next up and it's hard to split the top two in the market, Nicky Henderson's Long Run and Punchestowns. Long Run has been ultra impressive since coming to England, taking the Feltham and the Kingmaker. He possesses that magic mixture of speed and stamina, and may well be the second coming. However, he is only 5, which is very young for a race of this nature, and has not exactly been foot perfect, and any mistakes around Cheltenham will be punished. He's also ridden by amateur Sam Waley-Cohen which is definite negative against the pros. He's simply too short a price to back with confidence.

Stablemate Punchestowns could be massive value against the favourite, as he too has been impressive in his two wins over fences despite a major blunder on his last outing-he only found Big Buck's too good in the World Hurdle last season and will be bang there coming up the hill if he stays on his feet.

At a price, the one I like is Weapons Amnesty who has a Festival win, coming last year when he took the Albert Bartlett beating a top class field in the process. He stays all day and has solid form on all types of ground. He put up a serious performance when being short-headed by Pandorama (in that ones favoured conditions) at Leopardstown over Christmas, and just got outpointed by Citizen Vic over an inadequate 2m5f in the PJ Moriarty. He jumps, he stays, and represents massive each way value.

If there is a negative, its the form of the yard. As we saw with Solwith yesterday, Charles Byrnes isnt exactly firing, but Weapons Amnesty was reportedly unaffected by the chill in the stable over recent weeks.


Selection: Weapons Amnesty ew @ 8/1
Alternative: Punchestowns 11/4


Queen Mother Champion Chase

The big one of the day, and the long-standing debate over whether Master Minded is back to his brilliant best or not. The winner of the last two renewals has been untouchable at the festival, winning last year by an "unimpressive" seven lengths from old boy Well Chief.

On his return this season, the champion chaser was beaten by that rival over C & D (giving weight away) and was sidelined with a rib injury. The jury was out as to whether or not we'd see the real Master Minded again, but on his return in the Game Spirit last month, visually he seemed back to his imperious best (barring a last fence blunder).

But there are holes in the form. A blundering Mahogany Blaze was in second that day and there are some who think the form amounts to nothing. One thing that is for sure, he wont get away with a mistake like that one in the Queen Mother. But its simple. If Paul Nicholls has Master Minded back to his best he completes the hat-trick. The question is, are you prepared to take 4/5 or 8/11?

Im not, and the viable alternative for me is Kalahari King. An unlucky loser in last years Arkle, he went on to hack up in the Grade 1 at Aintree, and returned this season better than ever, when bolting up off top weight in a really competitive handicap at Doncaster. Ferdy Murphy left plenty to work on that day and was quoted before the race as saying he'd be happy with 5th or 6th. It emphasised the improvement Kalahari King has made since last season and with fast ground to his liking, he is a must bet each way at 5/1. I really cant see him out of the placings tomorrow and he may just have enough to beat Master Minded.


Selection: Kalahari King ew @ 5/1


Coral Cup

Readers of this blog will remember this race fondly when Ninetieth Minute obliged at a big price in this last year, and fingers crossed there's another gem in here.

There are a few i like, notably Quantitativeeasing, Sir Harry Ormesher and Wishfull Thinking.

Quantitativeeasing has been at the head of the betting all season for the Neptune, and it is a surprise to see him come here, especially with the trainers record in the race (3 placed in 24 runners, including last years unplaced favourite).

But Quantitativeeasing is potentially very well treated and represents the trainer/owner/jockey combination of yesterdays Champion hurdle winner Binocular. I actually quite liked him for the Neptune, so could not put anyone off him for this.

Sir Harry Ormesher is a quirky aul horse, but talented nonetheless. He is lighly raced this season (generally a must) and is the Alan King first string, ahead of the fancied Lake Legend. He wasnt stopping when winning over 2m3f at Doncaster last time out and should run well.

But the one they have to beat for me is Wishfull Thinking. He has gone from strength to strength in novice hurdles this season, and was mightily impressive when hacking up by 19 lengths at Exeter last time out. Although he carries 11st5, 5 lbs are offset by the talented Giles hawkins, which brings him right into contention. He ticks all the boxes and will hopefully give us a run for our money at a big price.


Selection: Wishfull Thinking ew @ 12/1
Alternative: Quantitativeeasing ew or Sir Harry Ormesher ew

Weatherby's Champion Bumper

In the bumper, I can't claim to know all that much about a lot of the runners, but one who was extremely impressive when winning at Fairyhouse was Tom Mullins' Tavern Times. He endured a nightmare passage that day and ran right away from the opposition in the style of a really good horse.

Mullins has been extremely bullish about him and rates him higher than last years bumper 2nd Some Present. It would come as no surprise to a lot of good judges if he won this and won it well.

Selection: Tavern Times ew @ 12/1

The Fred Winter is probably best left alone, but three against the field are Open Day, Son Amix and Ned of the Hill (all small ew).

Open Day ticks a lot of the boxes and will probably be my bet, as Son Amix might find the ground a bit lively. If he handles it he's interesting, and could run a big race, while Ned of the Hill will enjoy the quicker conditions and may have the most improvement in him. He's progressing at a rate of knots and would be a shorter price if with a more fashionable stable.