Day 1 of the National meeting is upon us, and I cant wait to get over there for our second national weekend.
The meeting kicks off with an absolute belter in the form of the Grade2 Liverpool Hurdle, run over 3 miles. It sees many of the protagonists from the Ladbrokes Wordle Hurdle renew rivalry, but as far as I can see this boils down to two.
Big Bucks was impressive when winning at Cheltenham, in the process posting a serious official rating of 174. He is a worthy favourite but I have a little doubt that he has had a tough season and may just have left a little at the cotswolds. Another worry I have is that he tends to hit a flat spot in his races...something that he (and Inglis Drever) got away with around a staying track like Cheltenham. Aintree places more of an emphasis on speed and Big Bucks might just get caught out tommorrow.
He may leave the door ajar for Mighty Man to extend his record around the track to 4 from 4. He posted a highly encouraging comeback at Cheltenham in what was seen as a prep for this, finishing fifth after showing up for a long way. Reunited with Richard Johnson tomorrow, for me Mighty Man is at worst a place certainty, and great value at 9/2.
Recommendation: Mighty Man e/w @ 9/2
The second race on the card is the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle, and while I may do this at my peril, at the prices I'm willing to bypass the Nicholls runner Hebridean. When I was the card I rated Hebridean a good each way bet at around the 8/1 mark...At 100/30 he can win at that price for all I care. He has too much to find to warrant a bet at the price.
The two Im focussing on are Triumph second and fourth Walkon and Starluck. Walkon showed tenacious battling qualities to run Zaynar all the way up the hill in the Triumph and will be a tough nut to crack, but the way Starluck travelled up until the run to the last at a track that wouldn't have suited him was quite taking, and on this flat track over the minimum trip he may well just have too much pace for Alan Kings charge. He was ultra impressive earlier in the season when winning around flat tracks such as Kempton and Folkestone. Of course there's extremely little between the two and I couldn't put anyone off backing Walkon to confirm his Cheltenham superiority.
Recommendation: Starluck @ 11/4
The Totesport Bowl is a little tougher than it seems. Although Denman ran a blinder considering the circumstances leading up to the race in the Gold Cup, its not quite the penalty kick it seems here. It can be argued that as a fragile horse (heart problems) this isnt the race to be running him in...quick ground, sharp flat track, and he possibly had a tough race in the Gold Cup. Either way the vibes coming out of the stable are that he is bouncing since that run.
If all is well with the 'Tank', then he hacks up here.
In Opposition are largely inferior rivals, but the two who may trouble Denman are old rival Exotic Dancerand stablemate Star de Mohaison. Exotic Dancer won this race with any amount in hand and wasnt too far behind Denman in the Gold Cup. You get the impressiion tho if either Denman or Kauto Star are on top form he'll never beat either. However, if Denman 'bounces' after Cheltenham Exotic may take advantage.
Star De Mohaison is extremely intersting. Won the RSA Chase and followed up here before a lenghty layoff. It could be that he's coming back to his best slowly and this could be his opportunity to get back to the big time. As ever, the assistance of one R Walsh can only help.
Not very original but I'm wiling to put my (not so) hard earned on "The Tank" coming back to his best and turning this one into a procession
Recommendation Denman @ 10/11
The 4.55 is also interesting.
Chapoturgeon routed a substandard field in the Jewson last month, but he had previously been held in very high regard and is a worthy favourite. If he can bounce out and jump the way he did at Cheltenham he'll take the world of beating. P lanet of Sound has every chance if reproducing his Arkle third behind Forpaddydeplasterer and Kalahari King but for whatever reason I've never seen him as potentially top class.
The interesting one for me is Tartak. He was badly hampered in the Arkle and would have finished a lot closer if it wasn't for that. He gets this trip really well and at 6/1 he represents great each way value (as long as there are no non-runners). Its an eight horse field an that gives us each way terms of first three.
Recommendation Tartak e/w @ 6/1
Others: 4.20; Valain didnt run his best race in the Grand Annual but he gets in here off bottom weight and was previously progressive. Incidentally he finished ahead of Poquelin that day yet Poquelin is an 8/1 shot, while Valain is twice the price...he ticks all the right boxes, and again, represents great each way value.
In the lucky last ill be backing Altilhar or Font e/w but its a horrible race. Probably best left alone.
Hope y'all have a great day..enjoy it, its one of the best days racing of the season.
Happy Punting,
Ian
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