Gold Cup Day

Well here we are,

Day 4, and we're on somewhat of a retrieval mission after yesterdays debacle.

I was utterly dissapointed with Kasbah Bliss. I really didn't see that coming.
Voy Por Ustedes ran a better race than Kasbah, but really, he made two extremely costly errors, especially at the 4th last, which cost him lengths, and more importantly, momentum.
In a championship race you just cant afford to make those kind of errors if you expect to win.

But moving on, Friday the 13th is going to be a cracker, with the Triumph, the Albert Bartlett, and of course, the Gold Cup to get stuck into, as well as a few juicy handicaps.

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle:

Zaynar and Walkon have been at the head of the market for months now, so its best to start with these two. When they met earlier this season, Zaynar dished out a 4 length beating to Walkon, however, he was recieving 7lbs from his rival that he wont get today which would seem to swing things in Walkon's favour. Since that run Zaynar appeared lazy when winning at Ascot and the application of cheekpieces today, for me, is a negative. He will though be suited to an attritional test an will get further in time, he will definitely be in the shake up.

The 7 lbs swing that Walkon recieves from Zaynar today leads me to believe he can reverse the placings. He also boasts superior form since the pair met, having won a Grade 2, before winning over course and distance last month. His Trainer Alan King has a fantastic record in this race, having won it with Penzance and Katchit in recent years, and sadlling Franchoek to be 2nd last year, and whoever beats Walkon may win this.

The one who I've backed, and hopefully the one to do this is Starluck. Alan Flemings charge showed smart form on the flat, and is an extremely quick jumper, something that will stand him in good stead in this race. He has been ultra impressive on his 3 hurdle starts this term, beating Tuanku on his debut (who Alan King thought highly of) before slamming his rivals at Folkestone and Kempton (including Wednesday's Fred winter winner Silk Affair by over 20 lengths). Something we've learned this week is to back horses whose form has been franked, and this is a great example of just that. The one negative is that he has been running on flat tracks, and this represents something completely different, but Im willing to take that chance.

David Pipe is particularly sweet on Master of Arts (thinks he could be next years Champion hurdler) and he could be anything, so this contest is wide open.

Zaynar, Walkon and Master of Arts are worthy adversaries, who i couldnt put anyone off backing, but hopefully Starluck can keep progressing and take this one for Alan Fleming.

Recommendation: Starluck each way @7/1
Danger: Walkon

2.05 County Hurdle

The old cavalry charge, where stakes are kept low, and trends followed to the letter.
Theres a few i like in this against the field, and you'll notice they're all 5 year olds (who have a great record in this race). The two fancied runners are Aachen, who has been nothing but impressive for Venetia Williams (whos string are in great form) when winning all three hurdles starts, and also boasts impressive winning form in France. At 8/1 he has a great chance.

As does Sunnyhillboy for JP, Jonjo and McCoy, he has been extremely impressive winning his last three starts and could still be ahead of the handicapper. He's won here already this season and looks to be still improving.

Another 5 year old who may run well at a huge price is Sesenta, the Willie Mullins filly who ran Tuesday's ridiculously impressive winner Quevega to 4 lengths on their last start at Punchestown. She's a strong stayer, which is needed around Cheltenham, and has always mixed it in good company. She could be a fly in the ointment, and Paul Townend's 3 lbs claim could make a huge difference today. She will run all the way to the line and hopefully it'll be in front of the rest.

Reccomendation: Sesenta each way @ 33/1
Danger: Aachen

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Pride of Dulcote and Cape Tribulation are rated in the 150s and have been impressive so far this season, but Pride of Dulcote has his jumping problems (he was the one who ruptured Ruby's spleen) and he is flattered by his rating. He does look good though, but is plenty short enough in the betting.
Cape Tribulation has been impressive so far this season, particularly when bolting in by 17 lengths from Junior in a Doncaster Grade 2. He has appreciated the step up in trip and will take a lot of beating. He was entered in the Ballymore on Wednesday but this seems like the logical option.

The one for me is Charles Byrnes' Weapons Amnesty, who won his maiden by 28 lengths before going on to win a Grade 3 at Limerick (beating todays rival Browns Bailey) and just failing to beat Roberto Goldback (second to Supreme winner Go Native subsequently) when stepping back down in trip in a Leopardstown Grade 2. He's a thorough stayer though and reverting back to 3 miles should be right up his street. There has been money for this one over the last couple of days, and Charles Byrnes rarely leave the money behind when its down. Fingers crossed he can at least run into a place. At 11/1 he's the best value in the race

Recommendation: Weapons Amnesty each way @ 11/1
Danger: Cape Tribulation

3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup

The big one...everyone has an opinion on this, and the main contenders are Barbers Shop, Madison du Berlais, Exotic Dancer, Denman, Neptune Collonges, and Kauto Star.

Starting with Barbers Shop, he was very impressive winning when stepped up to 3 miles at Sandown, and was a fine second to Ryanair winner Imperial Commander in the Paddy Power, and will run his race, but he has a lot to find with the principals, and a place could be his best result.

Madison du Berlais won the Hennesey impressively and subsequently slammed a below par Denman last month at Kempton. That wasnt Denman's true running though, and although Madison du Berlais is a much improved horse this season, I for one would feel cheated if he won this, he has too much to find.

Exotic Dancer has followed Kauto Star home a number of times in his career but was argubly better than ever when winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas (Denman went on to win the Gold Cup ater taking the Lexus last season). He represents great each way value.

On to Paul Nicholls...
First up is Neptune Collonge, last years 3rd has done nothing but impress over the last couple of seasons. He's plundered a couple of Grade 1's in Ireland, and has rock solid each way claims today. He was only a nose behind Kauto Star last year, but he will be inconvenienced by the drying ground.

Last years hero Denman suffered from a fibrillating heart in the Autumn and made his belated seasonal return at Kempton in the Levy Board Chase where he was extremely dissapointing when beaten by Madison du Berlais. He seems to have bottomed out after his top weight performance in the Hennessey, the RSA chase, and the Gold Cup. He looks as if he's fallen out of love with the game and at 6/1 he can win for all i care at that price.

And then there's Kauto Star, former Champion, and 3 times King George winner. He wasnt at his best in last years renewal, but Paul Nicholls thinks he has found the secret to him (keeping him fresh) and the quickening ground plays right into his hands. He was extremely impressive in the King George, and he reportedly worked all over Master Minded at Ditcheat last week. If he gets into a rhythm he could turn this into a procession, and continue Ruby and Nicholls' fantastic week.

Recommendation: Kauto Star @ 2/1
Danger: Exotic Dancer

4.4o Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle

Hangover, for Conor O Dwyer, has great each way claims in this. He won a hot Leopardstown handicap last time out when extremely well backed, and is the apple of his trainer's eye. He is quickly improving and could be a step ahead of the handicapper. He has been backed into 14/1 from 25/1 over the last week, and has a lovely racing weight of 11"3'. Paul Townend gets the leg up, and is probably the best jockey in the race. It is a wide open race and although David Pipe runs eight in his dads race they could play second fiddle to Hangover.

Recommendation: Hangover each way @14/1

Its gonna be a great day, and after Tuesday and Wednesday we've locked in some serious profits...hopefully we can top up and win a few more quid today. Either way, its been a great week. Roll on Aintree, Punchestown and Fairyhouse.

Thanks for reading, enjoy the day, and Happy Punting.

Ian