Well Day 1 went pretty well. P Carberry got us off to a flyer, and after the disappointment of the Arkle, we had a run of seconds which kept us in profit.
Maljimar and Celestial Halo went desperately close, and it could have been the greatest punting day of my career...if only, but that's racing.
Either way its given us funds to play around for the week, and hopefully we can pick up where we left off yesterday.
Day 2:
Wednesday 11th March:
1:30, National Hunt Chase
The 4 miler is extremely tough to unravel, and I've narrowed it down to four.
Coe ran a cracker to finish a 3 and a half length second to Rambling Minster in Haydock's Blue Square Gold Cup after an impressive win in the Tim Molony. He is still on the upgrade and could go close. The 4 mile trip looks right up his street.
Forest Leaves has been a model of consistency this season and following an agonising defeat on New Years Eve in Punchestown, he got his reward when running out an impressive winner of the National trial at the same venue over 3 and a half miles. Trainer Eddie O Grady has a superb festival record and this thorough stayer cant be ruled out.
Kornati Kid is the highest rated horse on ratings and although he looks comfortable on left hand tracks, winning well at Wetherby in December, he has saved his best performances for right handed tracks, and he seems to jump a touch right handed, which is a concernbecause they've 24 to jump today. He is ,however, extremely progressive and looks like he's crying out for this trip. The Wetherby win was a Grade 2 and beat another very decent performer in Will be Done. If on top form he'll be very hard to beat.
Parsons Pistol, for the in form Noel Meade and Nina Carberry partnership will have each way claims at the least with a repeat of his Grade 2 win in desperate conditions at Naas, winning by 19 lengths. He may however be flattered by the form as the ground was atrocious and it seemed a weak Grade 2.
So I'm gonna plump for Kornati Kid at around the 8/1 mark, but I wouldn't put anyone off having a saver on any of the others.
Kornati Kid each way @ 8/1,
(Forest Leaves, Parsons Pistol, or Coe alternatively)
2.05, Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle
Diamond Harry has been at the head of the market all season following impressive wins in the Challow and at Cheltenham. He seems to be regressing slightly though, and hung badly left on the run on his last run. His attitude is slightly questionable, and isn't hard to pass over, in what looks like his toughest test to date.
Mad Max is a brute of a horse and beat Karabak on his hurdling debut earlier this season, he may not like the forecast quicker ground however and looks a staying chaser in the making. He might just find one or two have that that extra bit of tow.
Mikhael d'Haguenet has been ultra impressive on all of his starts at home this season, including when winning the Slaney Hurdle and the Barry and Sandra Kelly memorial. He's been referred to as a machine by Ruby Walsh and if I'm honest, I couldnt put anyone off backing him. The main concern is the forecast going-the horse has a high knee action which means he likes soft or even heavy ground, and has done all of his winning on soft or heavy. He may just get caugt out by the quicker ground.
Which leads me to Karabak, who was beaten by Mad Max on his hurdling debut but has done nothing but impress since. He has winning course form when flooring odds on shot Mahonia here in December, before absolutely bolting up by 17 lengths in an Ascot Grade 2 when stepped up in trip. bought by JP Macmanus since he looks the ideal type to take this. If you can get a bit of 4/1 on Karabak, then I'd recommend a decent sized each way bet as I cant see him out of the frame.
Karabak each way @ 4/1, or win 7/2
2.40: RSA Chase
I'm all over Cooldine in this, especially now that Forpaddydeplasterer has franked the form in yeasterday's Arkle. Cooldine has been expertly campaigned this season with an eye on this race, and has the services of Ruby Walsh (picked him over What a Friend). He is potentially a top class staying chaser and is all heart (racked up a 5 timer in novice hurdles last season, before a game fourth in the Grade 1 stayers hurdle at Punchestown), and represents a knocking good bet at 4/1!
Cooldine @ 4/1
3.20: Champion Chase
No bet here-Master Minded should win but at the forecast 1/3 I cant have a bet-Maybe Well Chief or Briareus each way but last years winner shouldnt really be troubled by anyone in this field.
4.00 Coral Cup
Gold Cup winning trainer Tom Taaffe told me in a recent interview that he was paricularly sweet on Ninetieth Minute, and that this Listed winner is very very well. He runs off his Irish mark, and has a lovely racing weight of 10 stone 3lbs. The form of his last win has been franked in no uncertain terms when Solwith ran away with the Red Mills Trial (Grade 2) and at the forecast prices, I think he represents cracking each way value.
Ninetieth Minute each way @16-20/1
4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle.
A wide open event that could go to another recent JP McManus purchase in Miss Sarenne, who boasts decent form in France, and looked to have her hurdling debut in Britain sewn up when tipping up at the last at Plumpton. Providing that fall hasnt left its mark, she could go one better.
Miss Sarenne each way @ 7/1
5.15 Champion Bumper
Take your pick from the Irish runners, particularly Willie Mullins'. Sicilian Secret appears to be the first string, but I like Meath All Star for Paul Townend (backed him antepost). He won his bumper well and could go close. ALl of the Mullins runners may do well however to hold off Dermot Welds' Rite of Passage, but the price is gone now. Dunguib has been the most impressive winner in Ireland this season and will make them work, while Paul Nolans Shinrock Paddy won a Cheltenham Bumper already this season (as did Cork All Star before taking this 2 years ago).
As I said I've backed Meath All Star, but either of Dunguib, Shinrock Paddy or Rite of Passage would be worth a small bet.
Meath All Star each way @ 16/1
(alternatively Dunguib, Shinrock Paddy or Rite of Passage)
Hopefully today can be as good as yesterday, fingers crossed for a winner or two.
Happy Punting,
Ian
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
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