It's finally here.

We've been waiting for the last 361 days or so for this to come back around and now its back,
the Olympics of jumps racing, The Cheltenham National Hunt Festival.

As always people have their bankers, and this year's no different with the likes of Cousin Vinny, Binocular, L'ami, Kasbah Bliss, Voy Por Ustedes and Kauto Star.

On paper they all should come in but we all know that at Cheltenham, this just doesn't happen.
But hopefully over the course of four days, and 26 races, we can find a few winners, at some nice prices, and hopefully drag ourselves out of this recession.

Feel free to leave your comments and opinions, as ill be posting my selections every night.

Tuesday 10th March:
Supreme Novices Hurdle:

Cousin Vinny is many peoples idea of the Irish banker, and last years Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Bumper performer (first horse to ever do the double) has shown a serious level of form this year, coming 3rd on his hurdling debut in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle behind stablemate Hurricane Fly before winning his maiden and a novice in good style, and looked to be travelling all over the smart Pandorama before unseating Patrick Mullins at the last in the Deloitte. There are however concerns about the jockey's lack of experience, and the seemingly flawed hurdling technique. Allied to this, is the fact that the horse didnt travel well across the Irish Sea, and Willie Mullins is quoted as being unhappy with the horses well being.
All of theses factors leed me to overlook Cousin Vinny at the forecast prices and look elsewhere.

Torphichen has shown smart form since arriving in England, and has a serious chance on his recent Sandown win, where he accounted for subsequent Grade 2 scorer Penchant. He is though, only a 4 year old, and they have a desperate record in the race. Only Hors La Loi III has won this race as a 4 year old, the mighty Binocular couldnt do it last year!

This leads me to Go Native. The Noel Meade 6 year old was travelling just as well as Hurricane Fly approaching the last in Leopardstowns Grade 1 Future Champions Novices Hurdle, but a mistake at the last halted his momentum but still finished a credible second to the potentially top class Willie Mullins inmate, who misses the race due to injury.

Ruby Walsh's mount Kempes could pose a threat, but may just need quicker ground so i'll stick with Go Native.

Go Native each way 10/1.


Arkle Chase:

Not a race I've a strong opinion on but I can't have Tatenen at the prices as he got 11lbs off Follow the Plan at Leoparsetown over Christmas and couldn't beat him.

I also think Calgary Bay hasn't beaten anything special this season, the trip is wrong, and I have suspicions he doesn't see out his races properly.

The same applies to Forpaddytheplaster, who wants better ground, has found one to good on numerous occasions at the top level. He also hasnt really found his proper trip and may just find another too good in this.

One who fits the stats, and was extremely impressive in Kemptons Wayward Lad Chase over Christmas is the French bred Original, who is a massive horse standing at 18.5 hands. He jumps and stays well, and also has a high cruuising speed. He has serious place claims and could surprise people and win the Arkle.

Original each way 16/1.


Champion Hurdle:

The chances of Binocular have been well documented in the run up to this, but at the forecast 6/4 I cant put my hard earned on a horse who hasn't won at the track, wont enjoy the soft ground and has only ever won in small fields. The terrible record of 5 year olds in this race still holds through despite Katchits win last year, and until another one or two go in, I cant back Binocular at the prices. On the plus side, he has looked very promising the season, and could defy the negatives and be the next Istabraq. As i said though, I'm happy to look elsewhere at 6/4.

The obvious one to oppose the favourite with is Celestial Halo, who has been the subject of very positive bulletins from Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. He won the Triumph Hurdle last year, and may possess the stamina to kick on up the hill and stay there. He boasts the best flat form, and is a terrific jumper. ALthough only a 5 year old, at the prices he represents cracking each way value at around the 8/1 mark.

The cavalry includes last years winner Katchit (needs to improve at least 20lbs on this seasons form), runner up Osana (already beaten by Celestial Halo this season), Sublimity(age and stamina concerns), Brave Inca (too old) and Punjabi (each way squeak) and the enigmatic Harchibald, but a couple against the field each way are last years Anglo-Irish champion novice Jered, and Sentry Duty, who won a couple of big handicaps this season, and may run into a place.
These are both quite ground dependent so hold fire if the rains come.

Celestial Halo each way 8/1


Cross Country Steeplechase:

There really isn't much point in looking away from Enda bolger who has farmed this race, with previous winners including the legendary Spot the Difference, Heads on the ground and Garde Champetre (who runs today).

Bolger has the top two in the market in L'Ami and Garde Champetre, and for biggish hitters would be well advised to dutch the two horses at a touch over evens.

The trainer though has expressed concerns over Garde Champetre carrying so much weight (11st12lbs), and either way, the classier of the two is former Gold Cup fourth L'Ami, who has the expertise of JT McNamara on board and represents the bet of the day at around 5/2.
He won the key trial at Punchestown last month at a canter and looks to be primed and ready to take this.

For anyone lookin for a big priced alternative, the Irish trained Jaspers Dream was 12 lengths behind L'Ami but has a 21lbs swing in the weights today. He could be worth a little each way saver at 50/1.

L'Ami 5/2 (nap)

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle:

With the defection of Whiteoak to the Champion, for me this looks to be a three horse race, between the smart Quevega who won very easily at Punchestown a few weeks ago, and has extremely smart French form behind Hurricane Fly. Willie Mullins is quoted as saying Quevega is his best chance of a winner this week, but she may just have to give way to the tough mare United, who was a Grade 1 winning novice, was fourth in the World Hurdle a couple of years ago and returned from injury to win two decent pots this year. She's reportedly as good as ever and will take a world of beating.
Nicky Hendersons mare Chomba Womba (3rd in this race last year) could rustle up the above two if returning to her early season form but has disappointed in her last couple of starts and is overlooked (hopefully not at my peril).

United 4/1.

If anyone fancies a bet in the William Hill Handicap chase (not recommended), I'd stump for Maljimar each way at around 16/1-he hosed up in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham last season and has been kept for this since his run in the Paddy Power Chase before Christmas.

Thats Day 1, hopefully there's a couple of winners for you.

For what its worth it's my least confident day of the week, so stick with it.
Marathons and sprints and all that...

Happy Punting.

Ian