Having gone through the championship races, we move onto the tricky stuff...the William Hill Trophy, Cross Country and the David Nicholson mares hurdle.
Glenfarcla Cross Country Handicap Chase
Starting with the Cross Country, there really is only one place to look, and that's to the cross country king Enda Bolger.
He has taken a stranglehold on the division with the likes of Spot the Difference, Heads on the Ground and current champ Garde Champetre.
Garde Champetre defends his crown again, and again his main danger is stablemate L'Ami. There was only a length and three quarters between them last year and with a 4lbs swing, strictly on the book L'Ami must be the bet.
But Garde Champetre possesses a finishing kick that belies his position at top weight and he does have the assistance of Nina Carberry, who is the best female jockey of her generation and the two get on great together. If there's a touch of 4/1about tomorrow though, L'Ami is a brilliant each way bet to nothing.
For those looking for a juicier pricer, Another Jewel won the great trends race when taking the PP Hogan at Punchestown with four of Enda Bolgers in behind. Off ten stone he is probably overpriced at 14/1.
Selection: L'Ami 7/2 (ew if 4/1, small stakes though)
Alternative: Another Jewel (ew 14/1)
David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
In the finale im going to put up Easter Legend as a small each way bet at 20-1. She has been improving all season, putting up her best performance to date when a length second to the decent Sweetheart in a Grade 2 at Ascot, she is improving at a rate of knots and will see out the trip well. She also gets a handy 5lbs from her rivals.
She obviously has a bit to find with Quevega and Voler la Vedette, who both have slight doubts for me. Quevega hasn't run this season and although she was ultra impressive in this race last season, she has been on the slide in the betting in the last couple of days, which is never a good sign with Willie Mullins runners.
Voler la Vedette is the obvious danger to the champion, but i also have doubts about her lofty rating of 161. On ratings of course, she wins, but i tend to take mares ratings with a pinch of salt. For me, her least impressive run this season was when she stepped up to 2m4f so it could be worth siding with an improver, and for me Easter Legend is the one.
Selection: Easter Legend (ew) (20/1)
William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
The big handicap of the day is the William Hill, which would be the Festival's equivalent of the Hennessey.
The two horses in this for me are Kicks for Free and Ogee, who both fit the trends and stats perfectly.
Kicks for Free is rated 144 which is perfect for this race (less than 150 is ideal) and has also been placed three times at the festival. He will love the ground and we know he loves the course, so he should run a cracker.
He has been in decent form this season on ground he hates, and represents the champion trainer Paul Nicholls. He was officially rated 147 over hurdles so this mark of 144, for me, says that he is well handicapped for this.
The other one im backing in this is Ogee, who beat some very useful yardsticks in the Grade 1 novices hurdle at Aintree last year. Useful on the Flat too (92) he loves good ground, will see out every yard of this trip and has done a lot more over fences than his rating suggests. The only time he has been beaten over the larger obstacles was in the Feltham behind Long Run and Tazbar, which is nothing to be ashamed of. He has won since and yet still only carries 10st 5lbs. He could be absolutely chucked in!!
Selection: Ogee (ew) (11/1)
Alternative: Kicks for Free (ew (25/1)
And thats day 1...here's hoping for a good day's punting to set us up for the week.
Pleasant Punting
Monday, March 15, 2010
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