The Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
The feature race of the first day is one of the most open Champion Hurdles in years with the 9 of the 12 runners trading at 12/1 or lower.
There are strong cases to be made for most of the runners with positives and negatives for them all, and it promises to be a cracker!
At the time of writing Noel Meade's Go Native heads the betting as he chases WBX's milion pound bonus following wins in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdle's.
Go Native won the Supreme last year, showing an impressive turn of foot, putting distance between himself and his rivals before idling on the run-in and Medermit closing to under a length. The faster the ground is, the better for Go Native and he has a favourites chance. Previous festival winning form is also again a big plus.
He has beaten Solwith, Starluck, Binocular, Won in the Dark and Medermit already in the last year, so with conditions to suit, he must rate a smashing bet.
He isn't without his negatives tho...as statistics show that Supreme winners rarely follow up the next year, and winners of the Christmas Hurdle also have a poor record, as well as the fact that he hasn't run since St Stephens' Day.
Among the dangers is the Charles Byrnes trained Solwith, who has won significant trial races in the Irish Champion and also at Leopardstown over Christmas. He is quite adaptable ground wise, as he showed when winning in the spring at Aintree and Punchestown, but on quick ground he may just get done for toe by a speedier type.
Last year's winner Punjabi also rates a danger, with all of his best form coming in the spring. Runners in the previous years race tend to do well in the champion, but ive been sayin for a long time now that last years Champion Hurdle was below standard and im not about to change my mind now on the day.
For this reason im going to rule Celestial Halo and Binocular out, as well as the fact theyve been below par this season themselves. Binocular has been all but ruled out till this week so on that basis alone i cant back him...if Paul Nicholls is to be believed, Celestial Halo is back to himself, but he's held on this season's form.
Ive already mentioned Medermit, and i think he rates the danger to Go Native. There wasnt much between the two in last year's Supreme and he has improve leaps and bounds this season. Alan King's stable has hit form at the right time and he represents a knocking good bet.
Among the other protagonists, Starluck and Khyber Kim both have their chance and if i were to pick one over the other it would have to be Starluck. Impressive on his return this season before being bogged down in the mud when beaten by Mr Thriller, he showed his well being by winning on the flat recently at Kempton. There are worse bets.
Khyber Kim won the Greatwood over C & D, but he also hasn't run since December, and for my money he should be held by the main players.
Selection: Go Native (ew) @ 9/2
Alternative: Medermit (ew 9/1) or Starluck (ew 14/1)
Monday, March 15, 2010
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