It's back!!!

The best four days of the year. You can have your Christmas, or holidays or trips to Oz!!! This is what its all about, the Cheltenham festival. Four days of top, top class National Hunt racing, and plenty of money to be made. Having a glance through last year's blog, we did quite well (apart from Black Thursday...Shocker!!!). Fingers crossed we can unearth a couple more little gems.

Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

The Supreme is a race that's been very good to me down the years, and hopefully that trend will continue. It has, however, become the subject of massive debate...namely over the chances of red-hot favourite, the Philip Fenton trained Dunguib.

Arguably the most impressive winner of the Champion Bumper at last years festival, Dunguib has carried all before him this season, winning the Royal Bond and the Deloitte (both Grade 1's) without coming off the bridle.

A lot of people have crabbed his jumping, which admittedly has been less than impressive, but better ground should help his jumping, as will a quicker pace to aim at...it has to be noted that his jump at the last in Leopardstown was his best...and this was when travelling at top speed)

Dunguib is unquestionably the speediest horse in the race and barring accidents, he should win this en route to a shot at the big boys in Punchestown.

The bookies on course will look to get Dunguib in the book and a touch of even money should be available on the day. If so, he rates a massive bet and should get us off to a flyer.

Evens is clearly not a working man's price, and with Paddy Power refunding bets if Dunguib wins, there's a touch a value to be had.

The obvious starting point is Get me out of here, who won the Totesport Trophy with any amount in hand. Jonjo O'Neill is quoted as rating this beast his best chance of a winner all week which we have to take seriously. He has an official rating of 150 which would generally be good enough to win a Supreme, but he still has 6lbs to find with Dunguib (and thats without him coming off the bridle!). At around 6/1 he could be worth a punt.

The one that interests me at a tasty price is the Willie Mullins trained Blackstairmountain.

Trends and stats are vital in Cheltenham, and this one ticks all the boxes. Having just the one run over hurdles is no bad thing in the Supreme, especially as he won his only start of timber, and he also has plenty of experience between Bumpers and on the flat (including a win over subsequent grade 1 scorer Hollo Ladies.

Irish trained runners also have a fantastic record, and Mullins is well able to win this race, taking it as recently as 2007 with Ebaziyan.

So while I think Dunguib is the most likely winner of the race, I wouldnt put anyone off a few quid on Blackstairmountain (with Paddy Power)

Selection: Dunguib (Evens, or as close to it)
Alternative: Blackstairmountain (12/1, Paddy Power)